Revolution in Military Affairs Amos & Bill Talk Conflict Realism
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Oct 7, 2024 Join Amos Fox, a research fellow at Arizona State University and editor at War on the Rocks, as he dives into the world of conflict realism. The conversation explores the importance of historical context in military strategy, challenging futuristic ideals. Amos critiques the reliance on advanced technology in warfare, advocating for a focus on probable outcomes rather than just possibilities. He also discusses the need for adaptable strategies against modern adversaries, emphasizing personal interpretation in military analysis and the evolving complexities of combat today.
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Revive Military Theory
- Military theory as a distinct discipline is missing from modern discourse and must be revived.
- Amos Fox argues for more independent, rigorous military thought separate from IR theory and institutional bias.
Use Film‑Review Analysis
- Observe events, compare what was supposed to happen to what actually happened, then iterate and validate findings.
- Amos Fox recommends using a film-review style process to derive truthful interpretations instead of institutional narratives.
Probable Beats Possible
- Focus planning on the probable rather than chasing every possible future.
- Probable scenarios are bounded by resources, history, and scale, so they guide better force design and strategy.