Slate Money | The Truth Behind Donald Trump’s Tariff Talk
Dec 28, 2024
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Paul Krugman, the iconic economist and columnist, shares his insights on global trade and the complexities of tariffs during his candid conversation with Felix Salmon and Emily Peck. They dive into the impacts of Trump's tariff policies and the potential risks for trade relations with Canada and Mexico. Krugman also offers a perspective on the intersection of politics and economics, examining how voter expectations shape economic advice. Floating ideas about the future of American healthcare, they highlight the evolving discussion around single-payer systems amidst wider dissatisfaction.
Paul Krugman highlights that Trump's tariff policies could significantly disrupt North American manufacturing due to the intricacy of supply chains.
Krugman asserts that Biden's economic legacy may ultimately be viewed positively, despite political challenges, due to his quick recovery strategies post-pandemic.
Deep dives
Paul Krugman's Perspective on Trade Policy
Paul Krugman discusses the evolving trade policies under the Trump administration, notably Trump's inclination towards tariffs. He emphasizes Trump's belief that a trade surplus indicates economic success, a perspective that leads him to threaten tariffs on key trading partners such as Canada and Mexico. Krugman predicts that if implemented, these tariffs could severely disrupt North American manufacturing, which relies heavily on integrated supply chains. He expresses concern that Trump's understanding of trade dynamics may be limited and that sound economic advice could be sidelined in his administration.
Impact of Trump's Tariffs in His First Term
During Trump's first term, tariffs were primarily imposed on China, which affected a smaller fraction of U.S. imports compared to the potential tariffs now being discussed, which are much larger in scope. Krugman notes that the initial 20% tariff on China had a limited visibility in inflation statistics, whereas the proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would have a significantly broader impact. He suggests that the scale of these new tariffs represents a qualitative shift towards a genuine trade war, which could lead to widespread economic consequences. Krugman argues that past tariff implementations have not produced the expected benefits for U.S. consumers or manufacturers and that this larger round of tariffs could intensify negative repercussions.
Biden's Economic Legacy and Inflation Concerns
The discussion shifts to President Biden's economic legacy, which is largely viewed through the lens of recent inflation spikes. Krugman argues that the inflation experienced in the U.S. mirrors global trends stemming primarily from supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. While acknowledging the political fallout from inflation, he posits that Biden's policies aimed at rapid recovery were largely successful and that economic growth has rebounded quickly compared to other advanced economies. He speculates that in hindsight, historians may view Biden's economic management more favorably, akin to how Truman's presidency is assessed today.
Balancing Economics and Political Realities
Krugman explores the tension between economic theory and political realities, particularly how policymakers navigate these challenges. He mentions how the Biden administration maintained tariffs on China despite criticism from economists, highlighting the complex interplay of political calculations and public perception. Historically, political leaders often face pressure to prioritize immediate political considerations over economic advice, leading to delayed or inadequate responses to economic crises. Krugman advocates for a nuanced approach where policymakers should heed the insights of economists while also recognizing the practical implications of their decisions on political landscapes.
This week: Paul Krugman may have ended his iconic New York Times column but he’s still going to tell us what’s going on. Felix Salmon and Emily Peck are joined by Paul Krugman to get wonky on global trade, discuss the relationship between politicians and economists, and examine the economic legacy of Joe Biden.
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Podcast production by Jessamine Molli and Cheyna Roth.
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