Central Banks Are Hoarding This Asset Expecting Trump’s Next Move

The central banks are hoarding this asset while they wait for Trump's next move! In the meantime, Warren Buffett’s announced his official retirement and his handoff of leadership to Greg Abel. We talk Buffett’s post-2000 investment choices, the reasons he may have avoided buying Microsoft despite his close friendship with Bill Gates, and the challenges of managing massive capital. The hosts also touch on Buffett’s preference for capital-efficient, moat-heavy businesses and his indirect exposure to Microsoft through index holdings. We also discuss recent economic news, negative GDP print driven by rising inventories and reduced government spending.

We discuss... 

• Warren Buffett officially announced his retirement, passing leadership to Greg Abel.
• Buffett’s consistent outperformance over decades, despite criticisms of his recent picks.
• Buffett's size as an investor was cited as a limitation, forcing him to seek only very large investments.
• The recent negative GDP print, noting concerns around economic slowdown.
• Inventory buildup ahead of Trump-era tariffs artificially skewed GDP figures.
• Net exports and reduced government spending are key contributors to the negative GDP number.
• Consumer spending was also shown to have slowed, adding to concerns about potential recession signals.
• A sharp drop in consumer spending could be a clear economic indicator of a downturn.
• Business investment surged after Trump’s election due to economic optimism but has since stalled amid uncertainty
• Many business owners are holding back on investment due to a lack of visibility under the current administration.
• Shipping delays from China can take 30 days, meaning tariff effects won't be felt immediately but are now becoming visible.
• A drop in container orders from China suggests supply chain disruptions are already underway.
• The "bullwhip effect" explains how small supply chain changes can cause large swings in inventory and pricing.
• Warren Buffett is still sitting on significant cash, possibly anticipating better buying opportunities amid market volatility.
• A coming inventory crunch could cause inflation as demand outstrips constrained supply.
• Post-COVID rebounds in same-store sales distort trend lines and may create false signals.
• The official CPI of 21% over five years doesn’t align with real-world price experiences, suggesting data manipulation.
• Government inflation numbers may be inaccurate or understated, leading to misguided investing decisions.
• Investors should rely on personal experience and intuition—the “bullshit detector”—instead of blindly trusting official data.

 

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/central-banks-are-hoarding-this-asset-711