SI69: Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence and how to overcome it

Jan 4, 2020

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In this first episode of 2020, we discuss whether there any investment strategies that can work during all times, the recent Barron’s article featuring Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence, how Trend Following helps to prevent being too confident, the inherent negativity bias within most investors, the drawbacks of positivity when investing, and why you should consider the costs of being too cautious just as much as the costs of taking on too much risk. Questions covered this week include: Are CTAs becoming too cautious? Is it really worth diversifying away from developed markets? What causes you to make adjustments to your models?

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:09 – Macro recap from Niels

14:06 – Weekly review of performance

19:18 – Top tweets

49:01 – Question 1: Sam; Is it worth diversifying away from developed markets?

55:22 – Question 2: Edmund; Can you recommend any detailed backtesting software with the ability to test variable position sizes?

58:12 – Question 3: Drew; What causes you to make adjustments to your models?

01:06:14 – Question 4: Sebastian; Why is it so hard to be a successful Trend Follower, when it seems we as Humans innately like to follow trends anyway (ie. fashion, social media, tech)?

01:12:39 – Benchmark performance update

01:14:16 – Send your questions in for our upcoming special guest, Andreas Clenow

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