The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer

Crisis Calculus on Ukraine & Taiwan

14 snips
Dec 5, 2025
The podcast dives into the ongoing deadlock between Russia and Ukraine, exploring failed peace plans and internal Ukrainian politics. Tensions between Japan and China over Taiwan intensify, particularly after provocative statements from Japan's leadership. A lively debate unfolds over whether the U.S. should maintain its strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan or clarify its commitments, with arguments weighing deterrence against escalation risks. Insights from past diplomatic blunders add depth to the discussion on U.S. strategy in Asia.
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ANECDOTE

Snowstorm Interrupted High-Stakes Talks

  • Jon Finer recounted a Ramallah dinner where a diplomatic security agent returned covered in snow to press urgency.
  • The storm forced John Kerry to abruptly end talks and drive two hours back to Jerusalem with a snowplow ahead of the motorcade.
ANECDOTE

Caviar And American Hospitality

  • Jake Sullivan described first tasting high-end caviar in Baku and nearly spitting it out.
  • He contrasted lavish foreign hospitality with sparse U.S. hosting practices that often lack basics like bottled water.
INSIGHT

Japan's Taiwan Comment Raised Stakes

  • Japan's leader said Taiwan's fall could be a "survival-threatening situation," prompting strong Chinese retaliation.
  • Beijing used economic steps and fiery rhetoric instead of immediate military moves, signaling calibrated escalation options.
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