The Synopsis Dialogue. Axon and Floor & Decor 3Q25, 5 Years Flat Returns, Is Axon's Opportunity Large Enough?
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Nov 10, 2025 This discussion dives deep into Axon’s impressive 3Q25 financials, highlighting its revenue growth and strong cash flow. Axon's role in emergency response with the 911 push shows potential life-saving capabilities through improved dispatch data. The hosts explore Floor & Decor's performance, focusing on same-store sales and strategic leadership changes. They also examine store economics and the impact of tariffs, along with future growth in pro sales. Finally, insights into valuation scenarios and investment strategies wrap up this insightful analysis.
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Axon's Durable High-Growth Trajectory
- Axon delivered its 15th quarter of 25%+ growth and 7th quarter of 30%+ growth, with total revenue up 31% and strong net retention (124%).
- Software & services grew 41% while connected devices grew 24%, showing the software flywheel driving future recurring revenue.
Revenue Recognition vs. Cash Flow Timing
- Axon is booking revenue faster than cash arrives and stock-based comp is a large non-cash expense, producing negative free cash flow this year.
- Cash dynamics stem from device-heavy sales combined with amortized service revenue and elevated R&D spend.
Dependence Is Becoming A Competitive Asset
- Customers' two main objections to Axon are fear of dependence and price, but dependence has faded as Axon 'just works' and price is small relative to payroll budgets.
- Axon's integrated stack and social proof make switching to competitors unlikely for many agencies.