Miles Yu, a military historian and former advisor on China to Mike Pompeo, and Evan Medeiros, a Georgetown professor and ex-senior director for Asia under Obama, dive into the complexities of U.S.-China relations under Trump. They discuss the implications of his hawkish approach and strategic diplomacy. The conversation also covers Trump's trade policies and the critical dynamics surrounding Taiwan, showcasing the intricate balance of power and the evolving landscape of international relations.
The Trump administration is expected to adopt a confrontational stance towards China, prioritizing economic and military deterrence over diplomatic management.
The complex dynamics of U.S.-China relations could escalate trade conflicts, especially in the high-tech sector, impacting global trade significantly.
Deep dives
Trump's China Policy Direction
Under the new Trump administration, there is an expectation of a robust and confrontational approach towards China. The appointment of hawkish advisors, such as Marco Rubio, suggests an emphasis on deterrence rather than management in foreign relations, aligning with Trump's 'America First' agenda. This commitment to economic and military preeminence is evident in Trump's previous use of mass retaliation to deter adversaries and maintain stability in regions like Taiwan and the Middle East. The administration is anticipated to prioritize a strategic global framework at a broader level rather than piecemeal solutions to long-standing issues with China.
Influence of Advisors on Policy
The balance within Trump's administration reflects a mix of hawkish sentiments and business interests, particularly evident with figures like Elon Musk, who has significant connections to China. While Musk is seen as having potential conflicts of interest, his presence may also serve to moderate harsh policies while advocating for U.S. business interests. Meanwhile, advisors like Marco Rubio bring a strong understanding of diplomatic relations, particularly in the context of authoritarian regimes, which could guide a tougher stance on China. Overall, the dynamic among advisors is expected to lead to a competitive and potentially volatile approach toward U.S.-China relations.
U.S.-China Trade Relations Outlook
Trump's anticipated trade policy is set to continue from the previous term, potentially escalating into a trade conflict marked by significant tariffs and export controls. The administration may look to enhance restrictions on high-tech exports to China, particularly in the semiconductor sector, as a means of protecting U.S. economic interests. China's response could involve retaliatory measures that leverage its extensive toolkit, resulting in a complex tit-for-tat scenario that impacts both U.S. consumers and Chinese manufacturers. This ongoing economic confrontation may lead to more severe implications for global trade dynamics.
Taiwan's Strategic Concerns
Taiwan's position in U.S.-China relations is complex and precarious, with the island looking for assurances of support from the U.S. amid Trump's more transactional approach. Trump’s prior comments suggest a potential shift in commitment to Taiwan, raising concerns over whether the administration will prioritize the defense of democracy or be swayed by economic negotiations. As Taiwan increases its defense spending, it strives to signal its readiness to defend itself, amidst fears that Trump might advocate for policies that pressure Taiwan to concede in negotiations. This evolving dynamic emphasizes Taiwan's need to be proactive regarding its defense posture against potential advances from China.
Donald Trump is promising to challenge China on everything from its exports to its global influence over the next four years, but what could this mean in practice? Professor Miles Yu of the Hudson Institute, principal advisor on China policy to former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during the first Trump administration, and Professor Evan Medeiros of Georgetown University, former senior director for Asia at the White House National Security Council under President Obama share their views on China in Context.
________________________________________
The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute. ________________________________________