The Rundown What Nvidia’s Perfect Quarter, Google Gemini 3, and Interest Rates Reveal About the AI Trade (ft. Doug O'Laughlin)
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Nov 23, 2025 
In this discussion, Doug O'Laughlin, President of SemiAnalysis, dives into the latest dynamics in the semiconductor and AI landscape. He sheds light on why Nvidia’s impressive earnings led to market sell-offs and predicts an acceleration in AI spending. They explore Google’s Gemini 3 and its impact on the competitive landscape, contrasting the bullish spending habits of tech giants with cautious investor sentiment. Doug also discusses the potential IPO timing for OpenAI and the evolving monetization strategies within the AI sector.
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Perfect Execution Isn't Enough
- NVIDIA delivered a near-perfect earnings print but the market still sold off, showing execution alone no longer guarantees stock gains.
- Doug O'Loughlin attributes the market reaction to broader macro drivers, especially rate expectations, not company fundamentals.
Rates Trump Earnings News
- Market movement is now dominated by Federal Reserve rate expectations rather than individual company news.
- Doug says dovish rate comments move stocks more than earnings, making rates the primary market driver.
Founders Spend To Win
- Founders like Zuckerberg and Sundar will spend aggressively because winning tech is a priority above short-term capital concerns.
- This founder-driven urgency fuels a capital build-out even when the market questions sustainability.