The surprising data on AI and unemployment rates | Joseph Politano

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Jul 25, 2025

Joseph Politano, an economic analyst and data journalist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, debunks the myth that AI leads to job losses. He highlights how AI has coincided with record-employment levels in the U.S. since the pandemic. Drawing parallels with past technological advancements, Politano emphasizes that AI often creates new job opportunities rather than eliminating them. Most businesses report no negative impact on employment from AI, with many seeing increases in their workforce.

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INSIGHT

AI Boosts Employment Levels

AI has not caused unemployment to rise; instead, employment levels in the U.S. have increased since the pandemic started.
Many businesses report AI has not affected their employment levels, and some even increased staff due to AI.

INSIGHT

Tech Shifts Create More Jobs

Past technological shifts, like smartphones and internet, created new jobs that replaced those lost.
Technological change historically results in job creation rather than net loss.

INSIGHT

Job Shifts Due to AI

AI will shift jobs from tasks it does well to those uniquely suited to humans.
Predicting which jobs will evolve or emerge is more complex than anticipated.

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“I'm here to argue that AI is not going to cause a rise in unemployment. I think it's actually increased employment in the United States, not decreased it.”

When ChatGPT was first rolled out, there was a widespread fear that unemployment was going to rise very quickly. Well, it's been several years since ChatGPT was released, and the unemployment rate in the United States has stayed the same, says Joseph Politano, economic analyst and data journalist. In fact, if you look at employment in the U.S., it's near some of the highest levels on record -- and they've only increased over the last few years since the start of the pandemic. The economy has gone through tectonic economic shifts before. Think: the rise of the smartphone, or the rise of the internet, or the rise of the phone in the first place. Or even things as simple as elevator buttons that put elevator operators out of work. These created new jobs that more than replaced the jobs lost by technological change.

In fact, if you look at data from the U.S. Census Bureau, on one of the most comprehensive surveys of businesses in America, the vast majority of businesses said that AI has not affected their employment levels at all. And if you look at the subset of businesses that said AI affected their employment levels, the majority said that it increased the number of people they had on staff, not decreased. That's not to say that all industries and all occupations are going to be completely unaffected. There's going to be a shift away from the kind of work that AI is able to do exceptionally well, and towards the kind of work that humans can specialize in. Here’s what to expect from the job market with the rise of generative AI.

Chapters For Easier Navigation:0:00: AI and unemployment0:47: ChatGPT’s impact1:17: Tectonic economic shifts3:02: US Job churn

About Joseph Politano:Joseph Politano is a Financial Management Analyst at the Bureau of Labor Statistics working to support the Labor Market Information and Occupational Health and Safety surveys that BLS conducts. He writes independently about economics, business, and public policy for a better world at apricitas.substack.com.

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