Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 49: The Great Rotation Into International Stocks Has Barely Started. With Vincent Deluard.
May 7, 2025
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, joins to dissect the intricate global economic landscape. He boldly claims the 2% inflation target is no more and critiques the anticipated 2026 rate cuts. Deluard stresses that the migration towards international stocks is just beginning, prompted by shifts in investor behavior fueled by fears surrounding the dollar. He also uncovers how negative interest rates abroad, particularly in Switzerland, could boost investments in emerging markets like Brazil.
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Uncertain US Economic Outlook
- Vincent Deluard highlights the uncertainty in the US economy's trajectory post-Fed decision.
- He outlines two scenarios: a possible artificial boost before tariffs or inexplicable economic resilience without a clear recession.
US Deficit Fueled by Aging and Spending
- US deficit remains high despite strong tax collections and tariff revenues.
- Rising social security and federal spending driven by aging population significantly contribute to ongoing deficit challenges.
Fiscal Deficit’s Dual Role
- Vincent sees fiscal deficits as positive economic support despite political challenges.
- Cutting deficits now amid tariff-driven taxes could trigger a recession due to a negative fiscal impulse.