Russia takes control in Avdiivka & Navalny’s body ‘hidden from relatives’
Feb 19, 2024
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Russia takes control of a coke plant in Avdiivka, Ukraine. Navalny's body 'hidden from relatives', sparking vows to continue his work. Estonia's PM urges seizing Russia's frozen assets. Hosts on the ground in Ukraine hear testimonies and conduct interviews. Urgent calls for Western support and defense investments to address escalating crisis.
Russia secures control in Avdiivka, marking a significant victory over Ukraine.
Concerns grow over Navalny's body concealed from relatives and NATO's support for Ukraine.
Funding campaign initiated by Tymoshenko aims to aid Ukrainian defenders fighting in Avdiivka.
Migrant crisis on Lithuanian, Polish, and Finnish borders linked to Russia's actions.
Estonia stresses importance of NATO defense cooperation and readiness in deterring Russian threats.
Estonia advocates for increased defense spending, strategic autonomy in Europe, and support for Ukraine.
Deep dives
Challenges and Strategies in Trump-Proofing NATO
NATO countries are implementing a three-pronged plan to maintain the alliance's strength and secure US support. The plan includes increasing defense spending among member countries, addressing US foreign policy priorities such as China, and appointing a male leader as NATO Secretary General to appeal to Donald Trump. The aim is to prevent a repeat of Trump's criticism of NATO and potential disregard for the mutual defense clause. The plan also involves flattery and diplomacy to keep Trump engaged with NATO and prevent any potential destabilization of the alliance.
Latest News from Ukraine: Capture of Avdiavka and Navalny's Death
Russia claims control of Avdiavka, a significant victory securing the city and cementing its control over the region. Ukrainian troops confirm their retreat from Avdiavka, but claim significant Russian casualties. The loss of Avdiavka is a blow to Ukraine's defense efforts against Russian aggression. Meanwhile, in Munich at the Security Conference, discussions surrounding the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny's death and NATO support for Ukraine reveal growing concerns about Russia's recent actions and the need for increased backing for Ukraine's defense.
Delays and Challenges on the Night Train to Kiev
While on the night train from Poland to Kiev, the journey is temporarily delayed at the Ukrainian border due to protests by Polish farmers blocking the railway. The small train station at Helm, where the passengers must change trains, offers limited amenities. The predominantly female travelers on the train reflect Ukrainian travel restrictions for men aged 18 to 60. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to face challenges on the battlefield, and the fall of Avdiavka has further emphasized the need for support and assistance for Ukrainian defenders.
Julia Tymoshenko's Fundraising for Ukrainian Defenders
Julia Tymoshenko, along with other activists, initiates a fundraising campaign to provide support for Ukrainian defenders fighting in the Avdiavka direction. The goal is to raise funds to aid these defenders who have been facing significant challenges. In just 48 hours, the campaign raised over $5,500, and the funds will be distributed to trusted fundraisers to ensure they reach those in need.
Border Threats and Migrant Crisis
The main threat on the Lithuanian, Polish, and Finnish border has been the migrant crisis, with Russia allegedly pushing migrants into these countries. Russia's actions aim to either cause disturbances or capture videos of EU border guards not adhering to rules. However, for most migrants, Russia is a safe place, and they should seek asylum there. Countries have taken measures to address this issue, and Estonia's land border with Russia, stretching over 100 kilometers, makes it comparatively easier to defend.
Defense Measures and Collaboration
Estonia is confident in its intelligence services and the vigilance of its allies to detect any significant movements or incursions by Russian troops. Baltic states, including Estonia, have strong NATO battalion groups positioned near the border. The logic of force is important when dealing with Russia, as reasoning may not work effectively. The natural terrain of the Estonian border, comprising rivers, lakes, and forests, presents challenges for both sides. Estonia emphasizes the role of NATO in defending every square centimeter of its territory and believes that the deterrent force has evolved beyond being a tripwire.
UK Contribution and EU Defense Funding
Estonia highly values the presence of British troops and the nuclear deterrent capabilities of the UK within NATO. The Baltic states appreciate the high readiness reaction forces and defense cooperation, such as the Enhanced Forward Presence initiative. Estonia believes that European defense spending should be a matter of NATO allocation, while cohesion funding from the EU can support defense efforts. Estonia encourages the UK and other European nations to invest in defense and increase their support for Ukraine, suggesting that smaller nations can set an example by exceeding the 2% GDP spending target.
Addressing Global Threats and Strategic Autonomy
Estonia acknowledges global tensions and conflicts but does not consider Iran a specific threat. Instead, it emphasizes the convergence of various fronts and the need for a cohesive strategy from free world nations. Estonia believes that Europe should have strategic autonomy in dealing with regional military powers and cooperating with NATO. The Estonian position aligns with the idea of Europe as a strong economic power capable of defending itself, allowing the US to focus on global responsibilities. Estonia urges European nations to realize the urgency of the situation and increase defense spending.
Avoiding World War III and Trump's Impact
While acknowledging concerns about the unpredictability of the Trump administration, Estonia remains cautiously optimistic based on past conversations with Trump. It highlights the importance of actions and support from all US presidents, regardless of party affiliation, to ensure Ukraine's security. Estonia advocates for increased international cooperation, strong military capabilities, and a balanced discussion on defense funding. While emphasizing the need to avoid war, Estonia urges European nations to understand the urgency and economic consequences of not supporting Ukraine.
Strategic Autonomy and Cooperation
Estonia supports European strategic autonomy in terms of defense spending, but believes that military capabilities should remain within NATO. Estonia emphasizes the need to separate concerns about Hungary's actions within NATO from military capabilities Europe possesses. It calls for a European response that prioritizes cohesion and cooperation within NATO rather than a separate EU defense system. Estonia suggests that discussions on strategic autonomy should focus on empowering Europe to handle regional security concerns while giving the US more freedom to address global challenges.
Creating Awareness and Urgency
Estonia urges leaders to clearly communicate to the public the urgent need for increased defense spending and support for Ukraine. It calls for political leadership and public understanding, even if it means temporary tax increases or economic consequences. Estonia stresses that the opportunity to win the war in Ukraine is immense, but requires collective action and a change in spending patterns.
Managing Euro-Atlantic Relations and Trump's Impact
Estonia acknowledges concerns surrounding Trump's statements on NATO spending but believes that his previous presidency demonstrated strong support for the region. It highlights the importance of nurturing the relationship with the US while navigating the unpredictability factor. Estonia recognizes the need for dialogue and cooperation with both the Biden and Trump administrations, and the importance of European countries pushing for their security interests while working with allied nations.
Importance of EU-NATO Cooperation and Defense Investment
Estonia sees EU-NATO cooperation as essential in addressing defense needs and recognizes the European union's contributions to Ukraine. It supports developing European defense capabilities within the framework of NATO, rather than pursuing separate mechanisms. Estonia emphasizes the need for unity and sufficient defense funding to protect European nations, urging politicians to prioritize national security and public safety.
Urgency for Collaborative Actions
Estonia underlines the urgency of the situation in Ukraine and the need for collective action to prevent further escalation. It encourages politicians to communicate the substantial economic and strategic stakes involved, fostering public support for increased defense spending and efforts to avoid conflict. Estonia urges global leaders to unite, ensure the free world's safety, and push back against autocratic forces.
All this week, our regular hosts David Knowles, Dominic Nicholls and Francis Dearnley are on the ground in Ukraine, conducting major interviews with senior figures, hearing testimony of Kyiv citizens and reporting on the run-up to the two-year anniversary of the full scale invasion.
Day 723.
Today, we discuss Russia claiming control of a Soviet-era coke plant in Avdiivka, and hear from David, Francis, and Dom live in Ukraine. Plus, Estonia’s prime minister calls on the West to seize Russia’s frozen assets before the US election and we hear how Navalny’s body has been ‘hidden from relatives’ as his widow vows to continue his work.
Contributors:
Roland Oliphant (Senior Foreign Correspondent). @RolandOliphant on Twitter.
Joe Barnes (Brussels Correspondent). @Barnes_Joe on X.
Nataliya Vasilyeva (Jerusalem Correspondent). @Nat_Vasilyeva on X.
James Rothwell (Berlin Correspondent). @JamesERothwell on X.
Team in Ukraine:
David Knowles (Head of Audio Development). @DJKnowles22 on X.
Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.
With thanks to:
Julia Tymoshenko. @YuliaTymosha on X.
Former president of Estonia, Kersti Kaljulaid. @KerstiKaljulaid on X.
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