The 538 Politics podcast discusses the upcoming election in Kentucky and Mississippi, analyzing the competitiveness of the races and the strategies of the candidates. They also delve into the partisan split in worldview and the limitations of polling. The hosts touch on important races in Houston and Bridgeport, and assess the 2024 presidential race with poll results showing Trump ahead of Biden in swing states.
Read more
AI Summary
Highlights
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
The Kentucky governor's race demonstrates a shift towards voting for individual candidates rather than strict party lines in ancestrally Democratic areas.
The strong partisanship in Mississippi makes it challenging for Democrats to secure a victory in the governor's race, despite the incumbent facing scandals.
Deep dives
Kentucky Governor's Race: A Close Contest
The Kentucky governor's race between Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear and Republican challenger Daniel Cameron is a closely contested race. Recent polls show the two candidates tied, with Beshear slightly favored. This race is significant as it demonstrates tendencies in ancestrally Democratic areas to vote based on individual candidates rather than strict party lines.
Mississippi Governor's Race: Uphill Battle for the Democrats
The Mississippi governor's race between Democratic challenger Brandon Presley and Republican incumbent Tate Reeves is an uphill battle for the Democrats. While the polls show a close race, the strong partisanship in the state makes it difficult for Democrats to secure a victory. The incumbent has faced some scandals, but it is unlikely to be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Democrats.
Rhode Island Special Congressional Election: Democratic Victory Expected
The Rhode Island special congressional election is expected to result in a Democratic victory. Democratic candidate Gabe Amo is leading in the polls, indicating a strong likelihood of success. This race does not seem to be as closely contested as the other races discussed.
Mayoral Races: Philadelphia, Houston, and Bridgeport
In the mayoral race in Philadelphia, Shirelle Parker is highly favored to win, which would make her the city's first female mayor. In Houston, the competition between Sheila Jackson Lee and John Whitmire is worth watching as it highlights the dynamics of local Texas politics. Lastly, the Bridgeport mayoral race is marred by controversy and allegations of voter fraud, making it an intriguing contest to follow.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews Election Day 2023, focusing on competitive statewide elections in two very Republican-leaning states — Kentucky and Mississippi. They also consider the value of a recent poll that asked whether we live in a "big, beautiful world, mostly full of good people" or if "our lives are threatened by terrorists, criminals, and illegal immigrants.”