Test Match Special Daily Ashes Quiz: Difference between innings
Dec 15, 2025
Join comedian and statistician Andy Zaltzman as he poses challenging cricket conundrums during the Ashes series. Discover England's slim chances of achieving three wins, with surprising statistics backing up a mere 4.4% probability. Delve into historical win rates and England's recent form, which lowers the estimate to just 1.1%. Get ready to tackle the intriguing question of the average score difference between first and second innings worldwide since 2000. Tune in for insights, quizzes, and exciting cricket discussions!
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Combined Ground Win Probability
- England's historical Ashes win probabilities at three Australian grounds multiply to a small but non-zero chance of overall success.
- Andy Zaltzman calculates a 4.4% chance based on past win rates, rising to 1.1% when using post-1990 form.
How To Score Your Guess
- Use the show's scoring bands to judge how close your probability guesses are to the statistical answer.
- Aim for the 4% range to score highest under Andy Zaltzman's system.
Recent Form Lowers The Odds
- Recent form matters: since 1990 England's wins at those grounds drop the combined probability considerably.
- Post-1990 figures imply about a 1.1% chance of winning all three matches.