The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Ukraine Targets the CPC in Recent Drone Strikes || Peter Zeihan
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Dec 9, 2025 Ukraine ramps up its drone strikes on Russian energy targets, including the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's loading buoy. This strategy aims to disrupt not only the CPC's role in Kazakh oil exports but also the shadow fleet of tankers dodging sanctions. The targeted attacks raise concerns about the future of crude flows from both CPC and Russia. Additionally, European involvement could significantly affect Baltic exports, compounding the instability in energy markets leading into 2026.
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CPC Loading Buoy Now A Strategic Target
- Ukraine has begun targeting the CPC-linked loading buoy at Novorossiysk, threatening Kazakh and Russian export flows.
- Disrupting this node imperils roughly 2.4 million barrels per day of potential exports when including associated Russian crude.
Shadow Fleet Under Direct Assault
- Ukraine also struck Shadow Fleet tankers in the Black Sea, making those vessels and routes dangerous.
- That action effectively turns the Black Sea into a no-go zone for shadow tankers and Russian oil exports.
Millions Of Barrels At Risk In Short Order
- Closing Black Sea routes could remove two to three million barrels per day of flows from the market.
- Global oversupply cushions immediate shock, but sustained losses push the system toward its flow limits.