In this insightful discussion, Dr. Linda Yueh, an esteemed economist from Oxford University and London Business School, delves into the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. She unpacks the historical parallels of tariffs and economic strategies, shedding light on political motivations tied to issues like the opioid crisis. The conversation explores the complexities of global trade, from protectionism's effects to the rivalry's implications on consumers and companies. It’s a deep dive into how power struggles shape the future of international relations.
Imposing tariffs leads to higher consumer prices and distorts business production decisions, ultimately impacting global trade efficiency and economic growth.
Political motives have increasingly influenced trade tensions, shifting tariff policies from economic rationales to tools for political negotiation and global trade complications.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on Global Trade
Tariffs act as taxes on imported goods, which can lead to increased prices for consumers and a distortion of production decisions for businesses. When President Trump imposed broad tariffs on imports, he aimed to counter what he perceived as unfair competition from countries like China. For example, if a book that costs $10 is subjected to a 25% tariff, it becomes $12.50, effectively pricing out some consumers. This shift has also resulted in changing supply chains, with companies reconsidering their trade relationships to avoid tariffs, potentially leading to reduced overall trade efficiency and economic growth.
Political Motivations Behind Trade Wars
The ongoing trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, are increasingly driven by political motives rather than strictly economic concerns. In recent actions, President Trump has linked tariffs to issues such as the opioid crisis, especially regarding fentanyl imports from China, despite acknowledging that these tariffs are unlikely to resolve such complex issues. This approach demonstrates a shift towards using trade policy as a tool for political negotiation, departing from traditional economic rationale that typically underpins tariff implementation. Such a strategy raises concerns about escalation and long-term ramifications for global trade relationships.
The Shift in Globalization Trends
The current geopolitical landscape raises questions about the status of globalization, which has been challenged as countries reassess their trading relationships. There is growing recognition that globalization has created both winners and losers, leading to sentiments that protective measures like tariffs are necessary to safeguard domestic industries. However, this backlash against hyper-globalization could further restrict trade and complicate international economic cooperation, moving towards a more fragmented global market. As this evolution unfolds, it underscores the necessity for countries to find equitable and sustainable ways to engage in trade that consider both political and economic dimensions.
Having implemented - then temporarily rescinded - tariffs on Canada and Mexico after both countries struck last-minute deals, Donald Trump now has his sights firmly focused on China. Following his announcement of a 10% tax on their imports to the US, China retaliated with their own. So what effect will this new trade war between the world’s two biggest economies have on China, the US and rest of the world?
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Guest: Dr Linda Yueh, Economist, Oxford University and London Business School.
Host: Manveen Rana.
Clips: BBC, NBC, Fox 5 New York, The Independent, Business Today, Fox News.