Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 25, 2025
Mar 25, 2025
Libby Cantrill, Head of US Public Policy at PIMCO, dives into the tangled web of trade policy and its legal ramifications. She discusses the level of policy clarity traders can expect as critical deadlines approach. The conversation also touches on the potential impacts of tariffs on both US and global economies, emphasizing how these factors could shift market dynamics and consumer behavior. Cantrill stresses the importance of cohesive strategies amidst economic uncertainty to foster stable investment environments.
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Diversification and European Outperformance
- U.S. equities experienced weakness, but diversified investors benefit from non-U.S. exposure.
- The outperformance of European markets is primarily due to valuation expansion, not earnings growth.
Dollar Positioning and Market Narrative
- The dollar's recent weakness is likely a reversal of a massive long-dollar position.
- The narrative of U.S. exceptionalism ending might be premature, and current market action could be a positioning unwind.
Market Signals over Sentiment
- Watch market behavior, not sentiment indicators, in the post-COVID world.
- Observe the performance of equal-weight discretionary versus staples to gauge consumer health.