Risk aversion fades, risk taking swells

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news markets have brushed off the Nvidia result and chosen to extend their risk appetite. The S&P500 is at another new record high. But bond markets aren't so sure this is justified.

In the real world, US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week from the prior week, both in actual terms and from what seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1,945,000 people on these benefits, +101,500 more than at the same time last year.

The American GDP Q2-2025 GDP was revised slightly higher in its second estimate than the first mainly due to a slightly smaller decline in investment.

Pending home sales fell -0.4% in July from June, extending the -0.8% drop in the prior month to mark the first back-to-back contraction since January. They were down -0.7% from a year ago as the American housing market seems in a long-term slow decline having never really recovering from the pandemic period.

The Kansas City Fed factory survey was stable overall but that was despite a fall in export orders and elevated cost pressures. survey. There was a modest rise in August from July, but most metrics are still lower than a year ago.

Earlier today there was a much less supported US Treasury seven year bond auction (-11% less bid value) but the median yield fell to 3.87% from 4.06% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

In Canada they reported that average weekly earnings were up +3.7% to C$1,302 in June, following a +3.3% increase in May.

In India, industrial production rose in July and the pace picked up by more than expected. The expansion was +3.5% when +2.1% was anticipated, and more than double the pace of June's +1.5%.

In Europe, despite their inflation pressures being modest and on target, settling it at 2.0%, the overnight release of the ECB minutes revealed a split among policy makers on how to assess future risk. They left their policy rate unchanged despite some thinking rates need to go lower to support growth and counter US tariffs, while others thinking the risk of future inflation is rising. Despite that split review, in the end the decision to hold rates unchanged was unanimous.

Global container shipping freight rates fell -6% last week from the week before to be -60% lower than year-ago levels, although that year-ago base reflected unusual stress in the Red Sea shipping lanes. Once again, the recent falls are all to do with outbound trade from China. Interestingly, Chinese shippers are now targeting Australia and New Zealand, along with the Middle East because of the higher rates they can get in these alternative trades. Bulk cargo rates are little changed week-on-week but are up nearly +20% from a year ago.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.21%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.

The price of gold will start today at US$3,415/oz, up +US$20 from yesterday.

American oil prices are little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price is still just under US$68/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.9 USc and up +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.4, and up a net +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,596 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.