Hosts discuss the evolution of the podcast, calibration plots, Manifold's popularity at Proof School, missed betting opportunities, resolving a Latin poetry market, and future funding goals and plans.
Manifold Markets is a fun and accessible platform where users can create and bet on markets with fake money.
Calibration is key on Manifold Markets, ensuring accurate predictions and improving betting strategies.
Deep dives
Introduction to Manifold Markets
The podcast episode introduces Manifold Markets, a website where users can bet on real-world events with fake money. The hosts emphasize the fun and accessible nature of the platform, highlighting that anyone can create markets and participate.
Discussions on Calibration and Betting Strategies
The hosts discuss the importance of calibration on Manifold Markets, explaining how it helps improve betting strategies. They mention the calibration graph, which shows how accurately users are predicting outcomes. They also discuss their own experiences and insights regarding calibration, such as underestimating probabilities and dominant market preferences.
Reflections on the Growth and Impact of Manifold Markets
The hosts reflect on the growth and impact of Manifold Markets within their community. They discuss the initial challenges of getting people to join, the influence of referral bonuses, and the unique dynamics of a small school community using the platform. They mention specific markets related to personal lives, the popularity of joke markets, and the potential for private markets on Manifold. They also propose future episodes, potential interviews, and funding options for the podcast.
Your charismatic and charming hosts Jacob Cohen (@Conflux) and Andrew Imbens (@Imbens) discuss how this podcast has changed from Episode 1, calibration plots, shirts, the story of how Manifold Markets (https://manifold.markets/?referrer=Conflux) became popular at Proof School (our math-focused, full-curriculum school in San Francisco), and our M$6,000 “funding goal” to commit to an Episode 3. (Send manalinks to marketmanipulationpodcast@gmail.com!)
The hosting debut of “everyman” Andrew, this episode arguably cements the Market Manipulation Podcast’s status as the world’s premier podcast created for the purpose of discussing new implementations, betting strategies, or events surrounding Manifold Markets with at least one episode uploaded for public viewing, that is somewhat high quality, and is 10 mins or longer by market close.