In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 160: Kursk as Political Actor and Allegory

Aug 18, 2024

Explore the tumultuous dynamics of Ukraine's Kursk incursion and its implications for Russian politics. Uncover the evolving public sentiment in Russia, revealing a blend of apathy and resilience amidst corruption. Delve into the challenges faced by governors navigating military responsibilities without central support. Analyze the precarious nature of Putin's regime and how grassroots movements are countering governmental failures. The complex negotiations shaping the future of the Ukraine conflict add another layer of intrigue to this landscape.

58:15

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Quick takeaways

Public dissatisfaction in Russia is rising, influenced by perceptions of corruption and military inefficiency, which could lead to significant political change.

Historical trends demonstrate that military defeats often trigger public unrest in Russia, suggesting the ongoing war in Ukraine might follow this pattern.

Despite governmental failures, civilian resilience is evident through volunteer initiatives aimed at addressing humanitarian crises caused by the conflicts.

Deep dives

Assessing Russian Expectation of Corruption

Russians generally accept that their state is corrupt and incompetent, which shapes their responses to various crises. This expectation influences how they interpret events such as military losses or political failures. Russians may not always actively resist these shortcomings but will voice their frustrations through informal channels, particularly on social media. The expectation of corruption could imply a higher threshold for discontent before collective action occurs.

Family Ties Define Perceptions

01:11

Brutality and Strategy: The Complex Tactics of Command

01:11

Ceasefire Holds Crucial Weight Over Negotiations

01:08

Intro

2min

Public Sentiment and Resilience in Russia

28min

Governors in the Political Landscape of Russia: Struggles, Loyalties, and Military Responsibilities

17min

Negotiation Dynamics and Military Strategies in the Ukraine Conflict

5min

Crisis in Leadership: The Fragility of Putin's Regime

6min

As Ukraine's Kursk incursion rumbles on, what does it tell us about the political processes in Russia behind the warfighting? From how Russians really aren't apathetic and however low their expectations of their government may be, and do have a breaking point, to how Putin depends on and betrays his men on the spot, rumination about some wider developments and an historical parallel with the Time of Troubles....

The Andras Toth-Cifra piece on governors I mentioned is here, the FreshLabs findings are here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.

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