

Daybreak Weekend: Retail Earnings, European Banking, Japan Eco
Aug 15, 2025
Taro Komura, Senior Japan Economist for Bloomberg Economics, provides insights into Japan's economic landscape. He discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on local exporters, particularly in the automotive sector, and evaluates how Japan is adapting to inflationary pressures. The conversation highlights the mixed experiences of younger and older consumers in the current financial climate. Komura also delves into the potential role of technology and AI in boosting productivity across various sectors in Japan.
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Single-Family Starts Are Slowing
- Single-family housing starts are weakening while multifamily is rising, driven by builders matching production to demand.
- Excess new-home inventory (highest since 2007) reduces incentive to start new projects and will keep starts subdued.
Watch Builder Incentives
- Watch builder incentives because mortgage-rate buydowns are being used to attract buyers and pressure margins.
- Monitor whether incentives increase in H2 since builders told analysts they expect incentives to tick higher.
Renting Gains As Homeownership Becomes Pricier
- High mortgage rates and prices are pushing many would-be buyers toward renting, boosting renter household formation.
- A combination of lower rates, price declines and income growth is needed to materially revive homebuying.