Investing Experts Inflation expectations, tech valuations, healthcare opportunities
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Sep 17, 2025 Michael Kramer, Founder of Mott Capital Management and author at Seeking Alpha, shares insights on today's financial landscape. He dives into the significance of the Fed's dot plot and inflation expectations. Tech stock valuations are scrutinized, highlighting the AI hype and risks associated with concentrated investments. Kramer also unveils undervalued healthcare opportunities and discusses metrics for assessing various sectors, providing a roadmap for multi-year investing strategies.
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Dot Plot Drives Yield Curve Direction
- The Fed dot plot matters because it reveals the likely endpoint of the rate-cutting cycle and lets the yield curve properly steepen.
- If markets sniff out a terminal rate nearer 3% the long end could rise even as the front of the curve falls.
BOJ, Yield Differentials And Carry Trades
- BOJ decisions and Japan-U.S. rate differentials can materially move the yen and global flows, affecting carry trades.
- A higher long-end yield scenario is plausible if terminal fed funds stay around 3%, pushing 10y and 30y yields higher.
Monitor Inflation Expectations After Cuts
- Watch inflation expectations closely after a Fed cut to judge how far rates will actually fall.
- Use bond yields and credit spreads as tools to inform equity positioning rather than owning long-duration bond proxies blindly.