Paul Hünermund, Assistant Professor at Copenhagen Business School, discusses the potential of causal AI in business. Topics covered include validating AI output to avoid hallucinations, the distinction between causal AI and traditional causal statistical techniques, diverse applications in business, the Google controversy, techniques and tools of causal AI, the role of expert domain knowledge, understanding causal models and inference techniques.
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Quick takeaways
Having domain knowledge is crucial when using generative AI tools to avoid hallucinations and inaccurate output.
Causal AI allows for reasoning causally and understanding cause and effect relationships, providing valuable insights for businesses in various domains.
Deep dives
Causal AI in decision-making
Causal AI offers a framework for fair decision-making, robust decision-making, and explainable AI. It addresses the challenges faced in AI, such as understanding why a certain decision is made and not the other. Causal AI is a new field that uses techniques like observational methods and experimental methods to understand cause and effect relationships. It has seen success in areas like drug development, marketing, HR, and product development. Causal AI can help businesses make more informed decisions and automate processes with AI suggestions.
What is Causal AI?
Causal AI is an AI framework that allows for reasoning causally, going beyond simple correlations. It is different from traditional causal statistical techniques because it includes both experimental and observational methods. Causal AI takes into account different inference tasks, separating association from causation. A key aspect of causal AI is understanding the ladder of causation, where different inputs are necessary for causal learning. By applying causal AI, companies can gain insights into cause and effect relationships in various domains.
Business applications of Causal AI
Causal AI has a wide range of applications in different industries. Examples include drug testing and development, target market identification, product development and optimization, marketing and advertising effectiveness, HR procedures and employee satisfaction, delivery time optimization, and reduction of food waste. Causal AI techniques can be used to make more effective and targeted decisions in these areas, resulting in improved outcomes for businesses.
Adoption and challenges of Causal AI
The adoption of causal AI often starts with data scientists and technical experts within organizations. However, it is important for managers and executives to also understand the principles of causal AI to effectively utilize its potential. Common challenges in adopting causal AI include getting too ambitious at the beginning, ensuring the availability of relevant data, and understanding the limitations of data-driven decision-making. It is recommended to start with smaller projects, analyze existing data, and gradually expand the use of causal AI techniques.
There are a few caveats to using generative AI tools, those caveats have led to a few tips that have quickly become second nature to those that use LLMs like ChatGPT. The main one being: have the domain knowledge to validate the output in order to avoid hallucinations. Hallucinations are one of the weak spots for LLMs due to the nature of the way they are built, as they are trained to correlate data in order to predict what might come next in an incomplete sequence. Does this mean that we’ll always have to be wary of the output of AI products, with the expectation that there is no intelligent decision-making going on under the hood? Far from it. Causal AI is bound by reason—rather than looking at correlation, these exciting systems are able to focus on the underlying causal mechanisms and relationships. As the AI field rapidly evolves, Causal AI is an area of research that is likely to have a huge impact on a huge number of industries and problems.
Paul Hünermund is an Assistant Professor of Strategy and Innovation at Copenhagen Business School. In his research, Dr. Hünermund studies how firms can leverage new technologies in the space of machine learning and artificial intelligence such as Causal AI for value creation and competitive advantage. His work explores the potential for biases in organizational decision-making and ways for managers to counter them. It thereby sheds light on the origins of effective business strategies in markets characterized by a high degree of technological competition and the resulting implications for economic growth and environmental sustainability.
His work has been published in The Journal of Management Studies, the Econometrics Journal, Research Policy, Journal of Product Innovation Management, International Journal of Industrial Organization, MIT Sloan Management Review, and Harvard Business Review, among others.
In the full episode, Richie and Paul explore Causal AI, its differences when compared to other forms of AI, use cases of Causal AI in fields like drug development, marketing, manufacturing, and defense. They also discuss how Causal AI contributes to better decision-making, the role of domain experts in getting accurate results, what happens in the early stages of Causal AI adoption, exciting new developments within the Causal AI space and much more.