In this discussion, Chris Lunday, a POLITICO reporter in Berlin, delves into the complexities of the upcoming German elections and the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany party. Jan Cienski provides a deep dive into Europe’s evolving defense policies amid shifting global dynamics, particularly regarding Ukraine. Joanna Roberts highlights the tension between the EU's green goals and the need to support struggling industries. Together, they illuminate Europe's urgent quest for resilience against external pressures and internal challenges.
The rise of the Alternative for Germany (AFD) party highlights increasing economic disparities and voter discontent, particularly in Eastern states.
European countries are reconsidering their reliance on NATO due to U.S. uncertainties, prompting discussions for a more autonomous security strategy.
Deep dives
Upcoming German Elections and Poll Dynamics
The upcoming elections in Germany showcase a dramatic shift in voter sentiment, particularly with the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AFD) party, which has garnered significant support due to growing economic disparities and fears surrounding geopolitical tensions. Current polls indicate that traditional parties like the conservative CDU and Schulz's Social Democrats are maintaining stable percentages, while AFD has surged, notably in Eastern states where dissatisfaction with conventional political forces has notably increased. Economic challenges, including double-digit inflation and reliance on Russian gas, play a crucial role in shaping public opinion, pushing voters towards AFD, which has positioned itself as the anti-establishment option. This evolving political landscape highlights the potential for instability as coalition negotiations loom, especially if AFD’s influence grows in the new government.
The Fragile Firewall Against the Far Right
Germany's political landscape is influenced by a longstanding 'firewall' intended to prevent cooperation with far-right factions like AFD due to their historical connotations. However, recent events, including a violent migrant attack, have prompted some traditional party leaders, like Friedrich Merz, to reconsider this isolationist stance, suggesting a possible pragmatic alliance on key issues such as migration. This development raises concerns about the efficacy and resilience of the firewall, particularly as public protests against anti-migration motions highlight the tensions in German politics. Despite the risks of legitimizing AFD, Merz's cautious approach to collaboration may dictate the future of parliamentary alliances and governance.
Ukraine Conflict's Undercurrents in German Election
The war in Ukraine, while pivotal in European geopolitics, has surprisingly taken a backseat in the German election discourse, as domestic concerns dominate voter priorities. Friedrich Merz’s potential ascension to chancellorship could shift Germany's defense and foreign policy stance, with promises to enhance military support for Ukraine, reflecting a more aggressive stance towards Russian aggression. Despite the pressing situation in Ukraine, many voters express anxiety over prolonged engagement, leading to a divided public opinion regarding the level of support for Ukraine. The intricate relationship between domestic politics and external challenges underscores the complexity of forming a coherent policy direction that aligns both national interests and international responsibilities.
EU's Strategic Response to Global Geopolitics
Recent shifts in global geopolitics prompt a reevaluation of the EU's defensive posture, as concerns grow regarding the United States' commitment to NATO under possible future leadership. European countries are considering independent security arrangements, driven by fear of American retrenchment and the need to address regional security threats more autonomously. This uncertainty has led to collaborative efforts among European leaders to develop a more cohesive security architecture outside of NATO while still grappling with existing obligations. Ultimately, these discussions reflect a growing realization that Europe's reliance on American security guarantees may need to be reassessed as it seeks to establish its strategic independence amidst evolving global dynamics.
Europe suddenly has to do it all — all alone, all at once.
Still in shock after U.S. President Donald Trump’s unequivocal pivot toward Moscow, European leaders are grappling with the real possibility that they won’t be able to count on NATO — and the reality that the EU might not offer much of an alternative format.
That said, companies and capitals are looking to Brussels for a way to prop up struggling industries while not abandoning climate goals. And German voters will decide on Sunday whether to side with Trump and Elon Musk to support the far-right Alternative for Germany party.
POLITICO’s Chris Lunday joins EU Confidential host Sarah Wheaton to explain how migration is testing Germany’s firewall against the far right. Then, Defense Editor Jan Cienski and Policy Editor Joanna Roberts break down Europe’s existential choices on both defense and economics.
And don’t miss the latest episode of our sister podcast, Power Play. Host Anne McElvoy sits down with John Bolton, who served as Trump’s national security adviser during his first presidency. Listen here.
