The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - August 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
On a quiet market day, moderate gains in major indices hint at resilience despite negative durable goods orders. Insights reveal mixed data from manufacturing surveys and the Federal Reserve's crucial role in economic stability. The housing market shows slight price declines, while consumer confidence faces challenges. Looking ahead, the PCE inflation gauge release promises to be a key market mover. This discussion offers a rich tapestry of current events shaping investment strategies and economic outlook.
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Quiet Market, Modest Gains
- Markets were modestly higher on a quiet day with the Dow up 135 points and the S&P and Nasdaq up ~0.4%.
- Ten-year yields were roughly unchanged, indicating a calm yield backdrop despite recent volatility.
Durable Goods Beat Expectations
- Durable goods orders fell 2.8% in July but beat the -4% forecast, signaling softer yet less-bad activity than expected.
- Mixed regional manufacturing surveys suggest uneven industrial momentum across districts.
Regional Manufacturing Divergence
- The host highlighted mixed Dallas and New York manufacturing readings, showing regional divergence in production sentiment.
- He linked hoped-for CapEx increases to immediate-expensing tax rules that could offset tariff-driven consumption effects.