The podcast discusses the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on global maritime trade, including the boycott of the Suez Canal and attacks on ships. It also highlights the collaboration between Hamas and Houthi rebels, concerns of freight companies, disruptions in supplies, and rising freight costs.
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Quick takeaways
The Israel-Hamas war has disrupted global maritime trade, with ships boycotting the Suez Canal and opting for alternative routes, resulting in higher costs for freight companies and potentially impacting consumer prices.
Attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea have increased the War Risk Premium, causing insurance costs to rise and resulting in a 12% jump in freight costs in the past week, potentially contributing to inflationary pressures.
Deep dives
Geopolitical tensions disrupt maritime trade
The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has led to disruptions in global maritime trade. Ships are now boycotting the Suez Canal, a critical route for international trade. Attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen on ships passing through the Red Sea have raised concerns for freight companies. As a result, ships are exploring alternative routes that involve sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds an additional two weeks to the journey. This increase in travel time and the need for additional security measures and resources are expected to lead to higher costs for freight companies, potentially impacting prices for consumers.
War Risk Premium and rising costs
The attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea have led to an increase in War Risk Premium, which is the additional cost of insurance due to heightened security risks. Insurers are widening the area they consider risky and charging higher premiums to ensure ships and goods. The War Risk Premium has already spiked from less than 0.1% of a ship's value to nearly 0.7%. This increase in insurance costs, combined with the longer alternative routes, has resulted in a 12% jump in freight costs in the past week. These increased costs are likely to be passed on to consumers, potentially contributing to inflationary pressures.