The Weekend Intelligence: Gaza, after the dust settles (republished)
Oct 7, 2024
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Greg Karlstrom and Anshul Pfeffer bring their expertise as The Economist’s Middle East and Israel correspondents to discuss Gaza post-conflict. They illuminate the extensive destruction left in the wake of war, emphasizing the urgent need for governance and security solutions. The struggle for a coherent political framework is palpable, with the Palestinian Authority's role under scrutiny. Personal anecdotes reflect the dire humanitarian crisis, while the necessity for international support and rebuilding to prevent further instability takes center stage.
The aftermath of the Gaza conflict highlights a catastrophic humanitarian crisis, with essential resources like clean water and food almost nonexistent.
Establishing a legitimate and effective governance plan for Gaza is critical to prevent lawlessness and maintain security post-ceasefire.
Deep dives
Impact of the Ongoing Conflict in Gaza
The war in Gaza has led to unprecedented destruction and humanitarian crisis, with a staggering loss of life and basic needs almost entirely unmet. Reports indicate that the availability of drinkable water is severely lacking, with more blood shed than clean water in the region. Food supplies are critically insufficient, and hospitals face dire evacuations or attacks, contributing to a landscape where safety is virtually nonexistent. The devastation rivals any historical conflict, marking a profound moment of suffering for the local population, and raising serious concerns about the future of the area once hostilities cease.
Urgency of Post-Conflict Planning
There is a pressing need for a credible and immediate plan for governance and security in Gaza to prevent a descent into lawlessness post-ceasefire. Experts emphasize the critical 'golden hour' after fighting ceases, where effective security structures must be established to maintain order and protect civilians. Current proposals include a handover to the Palestinian Authority, though significant challenges exist in establishing legitimacy and control amidst the chaos. Without a coherent strategy, the risk of Gaza transforming into a lawless territory ruled by armed factions grows ever more imminent.
Challenges Facing the Palestinian Authority
The Palestinian Authority (PA) faces immense hurdles as it seeks to assert its role in governing Gaza after a ceasefire, including financial difficulties exacerbated by varied restrictions on resources. The PA is keen on re-establishing control, citing their historical responsibility to the people in Gaza, but faces skepticism regarding their capability to manage the fragmented and devastated region. Previous attempts to assert authority within Gaza have ended poorly, indicating a fragile political atmosphere that may hinder future governance attempts. Despite their determination, the PA's lack of legitimacy and previous failures paint a grim picture for their role in the potential reconstruction of Gaza.
Diverse Perspectives on Security Arrangements
Various Israeli factions hold differing views on the future of governance and security in Gaza, complicating the path forward. Some advocate for a degree of Israeli control or oversight in Gaza’s security, while others emphasize the necessity of Palestinian leadership. There is also a significant lack of unity regarding how to involve international or Arab forces, draining enthusiasm from potential contributors due to fears of conflict. The discussions reflect a broader political dysfunction in Israel that may hinder the development of a cohesive plan to address the urgent needs in Gaza.
After a year of war in Gaza, people are beginning to discuss the aftermath. Schools, hospitals, the sanitation system are in ruins. Just clearing the rubble will take years.
Focusing on the long term, many neglect what needs to happen on day one. Gazans say the territory is becoming lawless. Who will control security, and with what legitimacy? Does anyone have a coherent plan?
In this special episode of The Weekend Intelligence The Economist’s editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes considers the dangerously rosy thinking about Gaza’s future and asks what happens when the dust settles.
Music credit: Epidemic Sound and Blue Dot Sessions