FTA: Iran-Saudi Deal Shows It's Not Your Father's Middle East...But Is It Now China's?
Oct 12, 2024
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Alon Pinkus, a former Israeli diplomat and columnist, joins journalist Kim Ghattas to dissect the recent Iran-Saudi diplomatic thaw, notably brokered by China. They discuss how this agreement signals a shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics and challenges for U.S. influence. Pinkus explores Israel's potential constitutional crisis driven by its own domestic turmoil. Ghattas emphasizes the cautious nature of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement, questioning its impact on stability and broader regional dynamics.
The resumed diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, facilitated by China, signify a critical shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics away from U.S. dominance.
The evolving relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran presents ongoing challenges for Israeli security, requiring potential recalibrations in regional alliances.
Deep dives
China's Role in Saudi-Iran Relations
The recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, signals a shift in geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Over the past few years, Saudi Arabia has engaged in dialogue with Iran to reduce tensions and improve diplomatic ties, seeking to stabilize its security amidst growing regional threats. The discussions culminating in this agreement reflect Saudi Arabia's recognition of the need for a dialogue to mitigate hostilities, especially given Iran's ongoing political tensions and its historical rivalries with the Saudi kingdom. Furthermore, China's active role as a mediator underscores its growing influence in the region, marking a departure from traditional U.S. dominance in Middle Eastern diplomacy.
Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
The evolving relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran presents a complex challenge for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. While some commentators view the increasing Chinese involvement as a diminishing factor for U.S. authority, others argue that this development allows the U.S. to refocus its strategic interests, especially with China's engagement in the region. U.S. officials have voiced cautious optimism, asserting that if China’s mediation can lead to stability, this is beneficial for broader geopolitical interests. However, the U.S. must navigate this landscape carefully, leveraging its position to maintain influence while responding to the shifts in alliances and power dynamics.
Challenges Ahead for Stability in the Region
Despite the positive reception of the Saudi-Iran agreement, significant challenges remain regarding the stability and effectiveness of the new diplomatic ties. The historical context reveals that previous agreements between these nations, while promising, have yielded limited long-term success due to underlying tensions and mistrust. Analysts suggest that while the current talks may provide temporary relief, the deeper ideological and geopolitical rivalries between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia are unlikely to disappear. Continued vigilance will be necessary as both countries navigate their dealings with each other and manage their respective relationships with external powers like the U.S. and China.
The Impact on Israeli-Saudi Relations
The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran poses a unique conundrum for Israeli security and its diplomatic strategy in the Middle East. Israeli officials express concern that the normalization of Saudi-Iran ties could undermine their perceived security collaborations with Gulf monarchies. While some view the possibility of deeper Israeli-Saudi relations as unlikely without addressing the Palestinian issue, the dynamics are shifting, and Israel may need to recalibrate its regional alliances. If Saudi Arabia pursues a more cautious, pragmatic stance towards Iran, it could create openings for Israel to engage with Arab states in more strategic ways, albeit contingent on evolving political contexts.
There is never a dull period for the Middle East. David and Rosa are joined by Alon Pinkus of Haaretz to discuss Iran and Saudi Arabia resuming diplomatic ties and the ongoing crisis in Israel. Do we anticipate big changes in the Middle East following this announcement? What does this say about America's role in the region? Is Israel in an (unwritten) constitutional crisis? All of this and more during this thoughtful discussion. Members get a bonus segment where David and Kim Ghattas, author of Black Wave, continue the conversation about the Saudi-Iran relationship.