The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

#193 - Marko’s Back!

Apr 19, 2024

Jacob reunites with his cousin Marko to discuss Trump's impact on global geopolitics, U.S. inflation, Iran's attacks on Israel, Biden's trade deals, tariffs, and investing opportunities. They also analyze multipolarity, bipolarity, and share basketball hot takes

01:18:58

Creator website

Episode guests

Marko

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Trump's negotiation tactics involve high expectations, unexpected blows, concessions, and trade deal strategies.

A second term for Trump could accelerate the shift towards a multipolar world order, impacting global relationships.

Tariffs may initially cause inflation but prolonged trade tensions could lead to deflationary pressures.

Gold prices and inflation expectations disconnect indicates investor skepticism and potential deflationary risks.

Deep dives

Trump's Negotiating Tactics and Trade Deals

Trump's negotiation pattern involves setting high expectations, delivering unexpected blows, negotiating, and making concessions that may not meet the initial targets. While some may see it as an ineffective strategy, others view it as a way to secure deals. Trump's approach to trade deals and his use of tariffs are key elements in his negotiation playbook.

Introduction

2min

Navigating Uncertainty in the US Economy

17min

Economic Implications and Political Strategies

13min

Comparing Bill Clinton and Donald Trump in Politics

18min

Geopolitics, Multipolarity, and Market Trends

22min

NBA Basketball Game Analysis and Speculation

6min

Message Against Drug Use and Promotion for Cognitive Investments

2min

It’s been too long since Jacob and Marko, cousins by choice, got together to record a podcast. They dive deep into what Trump winning the presidency again could mean for global geopolitics and trade – while addressing topics like U.S. inflation, Iran’s attacks on Israel, U.S. v global investing opportunities, and…of course…hot basketball takes.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:07) – U.S. Economy

(20:17) - Israel/Iran/KSA

(25:13) - What happens if Trump wins?

(33:44) – Trump/Biden scenarios

(38:30) - Biden's track record and trade deals

(46:36) - Tariffs

(59:36) - Multipolarity, bipolarity, charts and the future

(1:05:03) U.S. v. Global (shout out Louis Gave)

(01:11:50) - Basketball hot takes

Referenced in the Show:

Louis Gave’s slides: https://research.gavekal.com/documents/10192/Unfoldinginflboom-apr2024.pdf

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis:

Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

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The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

#193 - Marko’s Back!

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Trump's Negotiating Tactics and Trade Deals

Geopolitical Implications of Trump's Re-election

Inflationary vs. Deflationary Risks in Trade Policies

Gold as an Indicator of Long-term Inflation Expectations

Importance of Domestic Politics in Global Stability

Trump's Aggressive Negotiation Style and Focus on Credibility

Global Investment Market Dynamics and Predictions

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts