FDD Morning Brief FDD Morning Brief | feat. Meir Javedanfar (Jul. 11)
Iran's Supreme Leader Faces Tough Choices Amid Regime Crisis
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei faces a major crisis due to deep divisions within the Islamic Republic after its poor showing in the 12-day war.
Different factions struggle over the regime's future direction: some want economic reforms and engagement with the Iranian people, while others want to maintain the status quo and resist change to protect their financial interests.
Khamenei's image is undermined by his disappearance during the war and his reluctance to make timely decisions, which affects prospects for regime stability and his successor.
This internal struggle comes as Iran faces severe economic issues, including inflation and electricity shortages, making difficult decisions unavoidable.
Meir Javedanfar highlights this as a pivotal moment for the regime that may shape Iran's future profoundly.
Supreme Leader's Crisis and Image Damage
- Iran's Supreme Leader's image is damaged by his disappearance during the 12-day war and internal regime divisions.
- The regime faces a deep crisis between reformists and status quo supporters with no easy decisions ahead.
Fatwa as Political Bluster
- The fatwa calling for Trump's and Netanyahu's death is mostly bluster reflecting internal regime factional struggles.
- It is used to sabotage changes towards a conciliatory approach to the West within Iran.