

Right Trend, Wrong Stock
35 snips Mar 29, 2025
The discussion highlights the pitfalls of the meal kit and plant-based meat markets, examining why companies like Blue Apron and Beyond Meat are struggling despite initial excitement. An analysis of post-IPO challenges reveals issues with customer retention and competition from traditional grocery stores. Insights on the importance of understanding market dynamics are shared, alongside a look at Coca-Cola's need for innovation amid changing consumer preferences. The performance of Celsius in the energy drink sector is also analyzed, revealing competitive pressures and growth strategies.
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Avoid Hype Cycles
- Avoid extrapolating trends linearly, especially during hype cycles.
- Analyze the drivers of growth and assess their sustainability.
Blue Apron's Failure
- Blue Apron's IPO failed despite correctly identifying the consumer trend of convenience in food.
- High customer acquisition costs, low retention, and competition from existing grocers led to its downfall.
Broaden Competition Definition
- Consider all competitors, not just direct peers, when evaluating a business.
- Existing infrastructure players can adopt trends and become powerful competitors.