Crime, Leniency, and the Science of Second Chances

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Jan 16, 2026

Jennifer Doleac, an economist and director of the Criminal Justice program at Arnold Ventures, dives into her book on criminal justice reform. She reveals how small-scale reforms can significantly reduce recidivism, emphasizing that leniency can actually enhance public safety. The discussion covers the surprising benefits of dismissing misdemeanor cases, the pitfalls of harsh probation conditions, and how evidence-based policies can reshape the system. Doleac argues for a scientific approach to policy, advocating for trial-and-error methods to foster effective change.

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INSIGHT

Economists’ Unique Lens On Crime

Economists bring three strengths: causal inference, incentives, and marginal spending decisions.
Jennifer Doleac argues these lenses uncover what actually changes crime outcomes versus mere correlations.

ANECDOTE

Random Prosecutor Assignment Revealed Surprises

Doleac recounts a Suffolk County study using random assignment to different prosecutors to estimate effects.
Luck of the draw to a lenient prosecutor led to many dismissed cases and lower reoffending.

INSIGHT

Letting First-Time Cases Drop Cuts Recidivism

Dismissed first-time cases produced large reductions in future offending with few observable costs.
She calls this evidence of 'free lunches' from better-aligned incentives in the system.

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Jen Doleac is an economist and the director of the Criminal Justice program at Arnold Ventures. She joins Cardiff on the show to chat about her upcoming new book, “The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice”.

From the book jacket:

Freakonomics for criminal justice, The Science of Second Chances presents a groundbreaking approach to criminal justice reform, revealing how small-scale interventions can reduce people’s chances of reoffending and break the incarceration cycle…

Drawing on cutting-edge economic research and real-world experiments, the book presents a blueprint for reform that runs all the way through the system. Doleac shows how economists like herself approach big, complicated problems as if they were scientists in a lab, carefully testing different approaches and following the data to maximize impact. She explains how shifting the incentives people face can produce dramatic changes in the decisions they make, significantly reducing the number of people cycling through the prison system.

Jen and Cardiff discuss the unique approach and contributions of economists to understanding the criminal justice system, why erring towards leniency so often leads to less reoffending, and the surprising failures of ideas that seem sensible. Along the way they examine the evidence needed to answer questions like:

How long should prison sentences be?

How should probation be structured?

For people who do go to prison, what kinds of incentives should we give them for how they spend their time there, how they rehabilitate themselves?

How should we take into account variables like age or mental health?

And what happens when someone gets out of prison? What are the best policies to put them on the path to success?

Jen herself has spearheaded a lot of the research behind this evidence, and she also has detailed knowledge of the work done by other economists in the field. So she’s about as well positioned to evaluate it as anyone Cardiff knows.

And her work is about more than just using limited resources in the best possible way (although that’s great) and more than just making society better and safer (also great). It’s about finding ways to help individuals get their lives back on track, so that a mistake made early in life doesn’t end up defining everything that comes after.

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