The Insight: Conversations – European Credit at a Turning Point
Sep 8, 2023
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Armen Panossian, Madelaine Jones, and Nael Khatoun discuss the current state of European credit, challenges created by the end of the easy money era, risks from geopolitics and AI, and the quality advantage in European markets. They also explore the shift from bank dominance to private credit, macro themes in European and US markets, jurisdictional differences in European investing, labor shortage concerns, and navigating uncertainty in the market.
European credit market has seen a year of recovery, with a focus on refinancing and light new prime issuance.
Private credit faces challenges like Brexit but presents opportunities for upside protection and investment in long-term recovery potential.
Deep dives
Ways to raise debt financing in European markets
In Europe, corporate borrowers have various ways to raise debt financing. Banks are active but have become more conservative since the global financial crisis. The syndicated loan market is dominated by collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) managed by investment managers. Larger borrowers and private equity-owned businesses often tap into this market. High yield bonds and investment grade bonds are also used, although retail investor bases are not as significant in Europe as in the US. Private credit is a growing sector, but regulatory limitations in Europe limit the retail investor base.
Trends in the European credit market
The European credit market has seen a year of recovery from events like the Ukraine conflict and the energy crisis. Confidence in lending has grown, with a receptive market for good quality companies seeking financing. A focus on refinancing and light new prime issuance is observed. While yields may not be as attractive as in previous years, there is still a willingness to lend to strong companies based on their quality, structure, and investor protection. European high yield bonds and senior loans have gone through a spread tightening event and are now on par with the US market.
Fundamental work informing macro themes
When it comes to fundamental analysis, the performance indicators of businesses show resilience. The consumer has been robust, although some signs of consumer pullback have emerged around leisure and food. Intermediary companies have been de-stocking ahead of potential consumer slowdown, showing caution and defensiveness. Cyclical industries like chemicals and residential building construction have experienced volume reductions due to customer caution. While short-term indicators appear positive, oak tree considers the likelihood of a recession and the potential impact of higher borrowing costs on debt-heavy businesses in the medium term.
Sector-specific risks and opportunities
In sector-specific risks, highly leveraged healthcare and other companies with debt burdens are vulnerable to operational issues and rising labor costs. Cyclical industries and commodity chemical sectors, despite previously being seen as higher risk, have shown more conservative leverage and resilience. Private credit faces challenges such as adjusting to Brexit and navigating sanctions, but it also presents opportunities for downside protection, due diligence, and investment in companies with long-term recovery potential. Artificial intelligence and machine learning are also seen as both risks and opportunities for businesses to leapfrog and make significant industry-changing advancements.
Learn about the current state of European credit and the dramatic changes seen over the last year in this thought-provoking discussion with Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit), Madelaine Jones (Portfolio Manager, European Senior Loans and European High Yield Bonds), and Nael Khatoun (Head of European Private Debt). They consider the challenges created by the end of the easy money era, risks posed by geopolitics and artificial intelligence, and the quality advantage that exists in European markets.
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