Big Drop In Home Prices Coming Next Year | Melody Wright
Nov 19, 2024
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Melody Wright, a mortgage expert and housing analyst, shares her insights on the chaotic U.S. housing market. She discusses how recent Fed rate cuts have paradoxically driven mortgage rates up, contributing to a frozen market. With rising inventory and declining prices, some seasoned investors are breaking their 'never sell' rule. Wright also warns of potential struggles for new mortgage lenders amid current instability, and offers predictions for home prices, highlighting that 2025 might be a significant turning point.
The U.S. housing market is poised for significant drops in home prices, particularly around June 2025, due to rising mortgage rates and increasing inventory.
Motivated sellers are emerging as rising property taxes and insurance costs pressure homeowners to list their homes despite a stagnant market.
The combination of rising delinquency rates and pressures on mortgage lenders suggests a potential shake-up in the housing market's landscape, impacting the broader economy.
Deep dives
Upcoming Housing Market Trends
The forecast for the U.S. housing market suggests that we may soon see significant drops in home prices, particularly around June 2025. A combination of rising delinquency rates, frozen transactions, and heightened inventory levels is causing concern for health in various regional markets. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have paradoxically led mortgage rates to rise, contributing to ongoing buyer unaffordability. Additionally, an increasing number of sellers are being pressured to list their homes amid rising property taxes and insurance costs, suggesting a potential surge in motivated sellers.
Impacts of Natural Disasters on Housing
Recent hurricanes have exacerbated challenges within the housing market, notably with low flood insurance coverage contributing to widespread financial strain. Many affected homeowners are now facing unaffordable rebuilding costs, leading to increased delinquency rates in regions impacted by these disasters. This situation could catalyze a wave of motivated selling, transitioning to distressed selling as homeowners struggle with spiraling debts and rising costs. Examining historical precedents, similar trends were observed after events like Hurricane Katrina, which could signal future difficulties for the housing market.
Emerging Distress Among Homeowners
There is an emerging trend indicating that sellers are becoming increasingly motivated, as many are facing financial pressures from rising expenses and ownership costs. As the market becomes more challenging for buyers, those who have held off from listing may ultimately be compelled to lower their prices. Factors contributing to this include aging homeowners looking to downsize, job-related relocations, and other personal reasons for selling. This accumulation of circumstances suggests that we may be witnessing the beginnings of a shift towards more distressed sales.
The Role of Inventory Levels in Price Dynamics
Current trends in inventory levels reveal that homes previously taken off the market are resuming listings as sellers become pressured to sell amid a stagnant market. Areas like Fort Lauderdale have demonstrated rapid inventory growth where speculation and prior purchasing activity peaked, largely driven by institutional buyers. This shift could lead to an abrupt oversupply as homes that were previously considered stable flood the market. Consequently, such saturation can drive price declines, as potential buyers with reduced purchasing power are unlikely to absorb the excess inventory.
Consequences for Mortgage Lenders and Institutional Investors
The impending challenges faced by mortgage lenders and institutional investors indicate a shake-up in the housing market's landscape. Firms that have relied on low-interest loans and quick sales may struggle as rising rates and increasing delinquencies put pressure on their models. Many lenders, particularly newer entrants in the market, appear unprepared for the pressures of a significant downturn, risking further financial instability. The associations between rising delinquency rates and institutional investment behavior suggest that the effects of market corrections may ripple through various sectors, potentially leading to broader economic implications.
Well, the Fed has now cut its benchmark interest rate 75 basis points, and yet mortgage rates have RISEN -- back up near 7% for the average 30-year fixed mortgage.
This has NOT been good news for the housing market, which has been frozen transaction-wise at record levels of unaffordability for the majority of aspiring purchasers.
It's been often asked on this program: How long can the housing market remain broken like this?
Well, we may be finding out the answer to that. In a growing number of metros, inventory is rising (substantially in many cases), prices are coming down, and long-standing real estate barons are starting to break their cardinal rule to "never sell".
Is this growing trickle of motivated sellers we're now seeing as more and more regional housing markets start to thaw likely to soon become a flood?
For answers, we're fortunate to hear today from mortgage expert and housing analyst Melody Wright.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
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