SI57: Why investors confuse volatility & noise with risk & instability

Oct 13, 2019

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On this week’s episode, we discuss the tendency for investors to confuse volatility & noise with risk and instability, the benefits of great mentorship, why the best investments are those that have survived calamitous periods, why risk from any single market shouldn’t be able to ruin your portfolio, and Larry Hite’s observation that there is very little magic in Trend Following. Questions we answer this week include: can a 10-year track record can be considered as anything more than noise? Is there a way to achieve exceptionally high returns with minimal risk & volatility? What really is a ‘fat tail’? Can Trend Followers make money in rising interest-rate environments? Can you apply Trend Following to the VIX index?

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:15 - Macro recap from Niels

08:15 - Top tweets

45:45 - Question 1: Gaetano; Is it reasonable to TF volatility/VIX futures?

50:00 - Debate: Can TF make money in a rising rate environment?

01:01:20 - Benchmark performance update

01:03:30 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull

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