197 - Software Eating the State with Sammuel Hammond
Nov 20, 2023
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In this enlightening discussion, Sam Hammond, an economist at the Foundation for American Innovation, dives into how technologies like crypto and AI are revolutionizing societal structures and challenging traditional governance. He predicts that as software evolves, it may reshape the nation-state, fostering both freedoms and tensions. The conversation touches on the regulatory hurdles faced by governments and the ethical implications of emerging technologies, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive governance in a rapidly changing digital landscape.
The podcast explores the potential reorganization of society under the new paradigm of crypto and AI, and the response of those in power.
The tension between the values of privacy, freedom, and the desire for control is discussed, emphasizing the need to find a balance between regulating dangerous technologies and preserving individual liberties.
The adaptability of institutions to evolving technology is crucial to harnessing the benefits and minimizing risks, as demonstrated by Estonia's internet-native government.
The concept of the network state is introduced, tracing the potential for technology to reshape governance and create decentralized systems.
Deep dives
Technology advancement and governance
In this podcast episode, the discussion revolves around the accelerated pace of technology, particularly in the areas of crypto and AI, and how governance is struggling to keep up. The consensus among the participants is that technology will ultimately prevail over governance. The episode explores the potential reorganization of society under this new paradigm and the response of those in power. Key points include the challenges and attacks faced by crypto in the US, the shift in America's stance towards technology, the global response to AI, and concrete predictions for the next two decades. The themes of technology and freedom, and the need to find a balance between them, are also discussed.
The Conflict Between Technology and Nation States
This episode delves into the conflict between rapidly advancing technology, such as crypto and AI, and nation states. It questions why some governments are resistant to these technologies despite valuing freedom and technology in theory. The tension between the values of privacy, freedom, and the desire for control is explored. The episode discusses the need to find a balance between regulating dangerous technologies and preserving individual liberties. It highlights the importance of adopting a pragmatic and realistic approach to technology, considering its inherent risks and benefits.
The Role of Institutions in Technology Adoption
This podcast episode examines the relationship between technology and institutions. It emphasizes how institutions, including governments, often lag behind technological advancements, leading to a mismatch of capabilities and potentially inviting a backlash. The episode suggests that the adaptability of institutions to evolving technology is key to harnessing the benefits and minimizing risks. An example is Estonia, which successfully built an internet-native government with advanced e-governance systems, demonstrating the potential for technology to reshape governance. The need to strike a balance between embracing new technologies and maintaining critical societal values, such as privacy and freedom, is highlighted throughout the discussion.
The Network State and the Future of Governance
One idea explored in this podcast episode is the concept of the network state, tracing the potential for technology to reshape governance. It reflects on the possibilities raised by crypto and AI for creating more decentralized, network-based systems of governance. The episode contemplates the development of a post-internet operating system for nations, drawing inspiration from Estonia's successful implementation of e-government. It also acknowledges the challenges of striking a balance between individual freedoms and preserving order in a rapidly changing technological landscape. However, the ultimate potential and practicality of the network state concept are subjects of ongoing debate.
AI technology is set to disrupt various industries in the next few years
In the next few years, AI is expected to have a profound impact on different industries. One major development is the rise of synthetic content on the internet, where AI-generated content becomes prevalent. Alongside this, the labor market will experience significant dislocation, leading to downsizing and job losses. This disruption will extend to government services, as agencies struggle to keep up with the influx of AI technology. As a result, private regulation and arbitration may emerge as alternatives to overwhelmed public institutions.
The mid-2030s could see a crack in the existing governance system
By the mid-2030s, the existing governance system, such as FDR's New Deal, is predicted to face challenges. Tax revenues could drop, and income may shift from labor to capital, further destabilizing the government's financial standing. Additionally, advancements in AI could lead to the emergence of new drugs and various life-saving technologies. However, the strain on existing institutions and lack of adaptability may result in a crack in the system, as government services become overwhelmed and unable to meet the demands of an AI-powered society.
The future state could be a fragmented empire with micro-jurisdictions
In the 2040s, after a wave of AI-driven transformation, the government may face significant changes. The federal government could see a soft landing as a failed state, but micro-jurisdictions and tech-forward states may emerge as alternatives. These tech-forward post-internet states, akin to Estonia, may focus on embracing AI and digital governance while maintaining a decentralized structure. The resulting landscape may be characterized by three types of states: police states, failed states, and tech-forward post-internet states.
The future remains uncertain, but a profound impact from AI is predicted
While the specific timelines and outcomes are subject to uncertainty, it is clear that AI technology will have a profound impact on various sectors, governments, and societies as a whole. The potential disruptions, transformations, and challenges brought on by AI require careful consideration and management. Balancing the benefits and risks will determine how we shape the future and navigate the path towards a more optimistic and inclusive society.
Is software eating the nation state? Technologies like crypto and AI are about to fundamentally restructure society from the bottom up. We brought economist and writer, Sam Hammond on to predict how society will be reorganized under this new paradigm and how those in power will respond.
Sam Hammond is an economist for the Foundation for American Innovation, a think tank advising policies in DC whose slogan reads, “Build Tech. Promote Freedom.” Freedom and Tech. We like those two things on Bankless - and we're also concerned with the project of how to protect them in a world where software starts to eat the nation state (and the nation state feels threatened).
0:00 Intro 6:48 Sam’s Take on Crypto 9:50 Nation State’s Hate on Crypto 14:53 Post-Printing Press 20:55 Crypto, AI, & The Internet 25:40 Tech Good, Bad, or Neutral? 32:03 Bracing For Impact & Tech Debt 38:15 Nation State Competition 46:39 Dangerous Tech 50:00 The Network State 1:04:55 AI Executive Order 1:12:28 China’s AI Approach 1:15:20 AI’s Double Edged Sword 1:33:45 AI & The Leviathan 1:48:23 What Technology Winning Means? 1:50:58 Closing & Disclaimers
