Equity Mates Investing Podcast Andrew Brown reviews his 2025 bold predictions
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Nov 27, 2025 Andrew Brown, Executive Director at A72 Holdings, shares his annual market predictions and reviews their outcomes. He reflects on the challenges faced by US equities and bond yields, revealing a surprising drop in Treasuries. The discussion highlights AI's mixed reality, the rebound of Chinese tech, and the structural decline of alcohol stocks. Andrew candidly addresses his worst call on Novo Nordisk while showcasing his successful China tech prediction. He concludes with valuable investing lessons on recency bias and the importance of global market exposure.
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Stocks Rose Without Earnings Growth
- US equity gains happened despite flat earnings estimates, aided by lower bond yields.
- Market moves were driven more by falling risk-free rates than profit growth.
AI Spending, Not Earnings, Drove Markets
- AI enthusiasm lifted markets without matching earnings upgrades in many users.
- Massive unexpected CapEx from big tech explains Nvidia's strength despite mixed user performance.
AI Helped Mega Caps, Hurt Small Caps
- Small caps underperformed as AI gains concentrated in mega-cap tech.
- The Russell 2000 lagged because the 'AI state' concentrated wealth in a few regions and firms.