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Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 26, 2024

Sep 26, 2024
Evan Brown, a portfolio manager at UBS, believes the Fed is likely to continue cutting rates, while Kelsey Berro from JPMorgan argues there's justification for a more aggressive 100 to 150 basis point cut due to decreasing inflation. Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo, highlights a 30% to 35% risk of recession within the next year, especially in light of rising jobless claims. They dive into the implications of fiscal stimulus in China, the labor market's current state, and varying investment strategies for an uncertain economic future.
19:12

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The Fed's potential for interest rate cuts is influenced by positive inflation trends and global economic confidence, particularly from China.
  • Despite a stable labor market and healthy business balance sheets, risks of rising inflation and slow job growth remain concerning for economic stability.

Deep dives

The Impact of Fiscal Stimulus on Markets

Fiscal stimulus emerging from China is creating a ripple effect in global markets, causing equities to rise ahead of key economic data releases in the United States. Optimistic messaging from both the Federal Reserve and Chinese authorities has instilled confidence, suggesting that proactive monetary policies may diminish recession risks. This alignment in global economic strategies hints at a potential stabilization, allowing Treasury yields to recover moderately. The interplay between these stimuli indicates that a supportive environment for growth may lead to a more favorable outlook for various sectors, particularly those linked to consumer spending.

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