The Mar-a-Lago myth, another crisis in Turkey and Rachel Reeves' under pressure

Could a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ fix what ails the US balance of payments? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the show this week to tackle the various ideas around what the Trump administration could do to address long-standing global imbalances. He also warns that uncertainty around the Trump trade agenda may not dissipate with the release of the reciprocal tariffs plan on 2nd April and explains how this is all feeding into central bank uncertainty about the policy path ahead. 

Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory talks about what to expect from Rachel Reeves’ upcoming fiscal statement, but also discusses the Chancellor’s spending challenges in a more dangerous world that demands a forceful UK security posture. 

And Senior EM Economist Liam Peach explains resurgent risks around Turkey’s economy and markets after the arrest of President Erdogan’s key political rival plunged the country back into crisis. 

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende!
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economic-outlook/europe-outlook-zeitenwende

Global Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England March meetings
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-fed-ecb-and-bank-england-march-meetings

UK Drop-In: Spring Fiscal Forecast reaction – Macro and market implications of Reeves’ statement
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/uk-drop-spring-fiscal-forecast-reaction-macro-and-market-implications-reeves-statement

Data: UK Employment Indicator
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/uk-employment-indicator

Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey fallout, Polish rate outlook
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-weekly/emerging-europe-weekly-turkey-fallout-polish-rate