Complexity Premia Episode 63: Trump’s Tariffs & How the Trade War Will Hit Australia – Guest Appearance on Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
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Apr 9, 2025 Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer at Coolabah Capital and an expert on economics and global markets, joins Mark Bouris to dissect the economic fallout from Trump’s tariffs. They explore how rising trade tensions could ensnare Australia, along with the hefty headwinds China faces. Joye also critiques the complexities of Australia's interest rates during elections and advocates for a rethinking of lending regulations. They dive into broader topics like Elon Musk's influence on cryptocurrency and the contrasting infrastructure visions of Australia and the U.S.
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Episode notes
Impact of Single Rate Cut
- One rate cut does not meaningfully affect inflation data.
- However, it shifts market sentiment, impacting asset prices like housing.
Deflationary Impact of Tariffs on Australia
- Trump's tariffs will block Chinese goods from the US market.
- This will lead to China dumping cheap goods into other markets like Australia, causing deflation.
China's Economic Struggle
- China's economy will suffer due to the trade war as they are blocked from western markets.
- Australia, being reliant on China for trade, will also experience negative impacts.