House of Strauss HoS NFL Week 3: New Kickoff Style = Huge Advantage?
Sep 23, 2025
This week features Steve Kuhn, founder of SportsPredict.com and a sports betting aficionado. He delves into the secrets behind his impressive NFL picks and why prop bets might be more exploitable than traditional game outcomes. Steve also introduces a game-changing kickoff strategy from the Rams and explains its potential impact on field position. The conversation shifts to punting tactics, aggressive play-calling, and the psychology of celebrations, highlighting the complexities and nuances of modern football strategies.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Choose Money Line To Avoid Spread Pain
- Prefer money lines if you want to avoid the amplified pain of point-spread bad beats like late overtime swings.
- Money lines align predictions with the actual winner and remove point-margin indignities.
Knuckleball Kick Could Be A New Edge
- A knuckleball-style kickoff that bounces unpredictably increases return difficulty and can be a durable advantage if replicated.
- Rapid replication by opponents will determine whether it's a lasting edge or a short-lived innovation.
Kicking Variance Creates Big Beats
- Field-goal dynamics fluctuated in early 2024, with many long attempts and an uptick in blocked kicks and returns.
- Even rare outcomes (blocked-and-returned TD) can produce historically catastrophic gambling beats.