Ep. 304 The 12 Metrics You Need To Find Long-Term Market Opportunities
Jan 22, 2025
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Nancy Tengler, CEO & CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, shares her journey from aspiring fighter pilot to a leading investment strategist. She reveals the nine quantitative and three qualitative metrics she utilizes for long-term investments. Delve into her insights on evaluating earnings, using Walmart as a case study, and the significance of dividend yields. Nancy also discusses the importance of sales metrics, portfolio construction, and her investment strategy shifts, like moving from Adobe to Spotify, highlighting growth potential and adaptive management.
Nancy Tengler emphasizes the importance of dividends and sustainable earnings growth as crucial indicators for long-term investment opportunities.
Tangler highlights the need for analyzing management adaptability and innovation in identifying high-quality stocks amidst evolving market trends.
Deep dives
Nancy Tangler's Investment Philosophy
Nancy Tangler emphasizes a unique approach to stock selection, particularly in terms of evaluating long-term investments. She focuses heavily on the relationship between dividends and sustainable earnings growth, with the belief that a company's management’s decision to raise dividends reflects confidence in future performance. For instance, Walmart's past dividend increases served as a strong indicator of its expected earnings growth, showcasing the effectiveness of using relative dividend yield as a valuation tool. This method allows investors to identify 'fallen angel' stocks, which may have temporarily lost value but possess strong underlying fundamentals.
The Role of Earnings and Sales in Valuation
A critical aspect of Tangler's strategy involves prioritizing earnings while also questioning Wall Street's estimates of those earnings. She suggests that the reliance on relative price to sales ratio serves as a more stable metric, especially in the wake of historical financial manipulation cases like Enron. For example, discrepancies in sales figures versus earnings estimates signify potential undervaluation opportunities. This context drives her investment decisions, allowing for a balanced analysis that blends both earnings expectations and solid sales performance.
Concentrated Portfolio Strategy
Tangler manages concentrated portfolios, typically holding about 25 to 30 names, which provides an avenue for higher returns compared to broader diversification strategies. She notes that optimal diversification occurs with a small number of high-conviction stocks, arguing that individual stock performance significantly influences overall returns. For example, her portfolio reflects substantial investment in technology, consumer discretionary, and industrial sectors, emphasizing her preference for investing in high-quality, well-positioned companies. Though concentrating investments carries risks, it allows for effective market participation by focusing on select growth opportunities.
Identifying Growth Catalysts in Technology
In the rapidly changing tech landscape, Tangler identifies the importance of management's adaptability and innovation as key signals for stock selection. She references ServiceNow’s successful execution in delivering consistent earnings growth, positioning the company to benefit from the ongoing transition to generative AI and cloud computing. Understanding strategic pivots, such as Amazon's evolution beyond e-commerce into cloud services and advertising, showcases the value of recognizing underlying business models. This thorough analysis not only involves examining earnings but also requires monitoring broader market and technological trends to preemptively capture opportunities.
Sometimes, you get a great investing idea. But how can you tell if it’s actionable? Nancy Tengler, CEO & CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, discusses the nine quantitative — and three qualitative — metrics she uses to create opportunities for long-term investment plays. She discusses her entry into Tesla’s recent run, the one thing she looks for in earnings, and why technicals still matter.