Office real estate appraisals are struggling more than during the financial crisis. The Fed plans another rate hike. The UAW, WGA, and SAG-AFTRA strikes are analyzed. Misconceptions about artificial intelligence are addressed. Ron and Matt discuss two stocks: Fairfax Financial and Nike.
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Quick takeaways
The Federal Reserve expects to raise interest rates another time this year, indicating a shift in the investment landscape and potential implications for stocks and borrowers.
The office real estate sector is facing a significant downturn, with declining property values and various contributing factors such as labor strikes and remote work trends, which may impact the broader economy and create potential investment opportunities in other sectors like REITs.
Deep dives
The Fed maintains current interest rates, indicating one more rate hike this year
After a recent meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady for the time being. However, there is a consensus among officials that there will be one more rate hike this year. The Fed officials also indicated that they expect to keep rates higher for a longer period of time. This news has led to mixed reactions in the market, with some investors hoping for rate cuts. The 10-year treasury yield is at its highest level since 2007, which could have implications for stocks and borrowers.
The landscape of investing is changing with higher interest rates
The era of near-zero interest rates is coming to an end, leading to a shift in the investment landscape. With interest rates expected to stay higher for longer, the value of future cash flows is decreasing, which has significant implications for the stock market. In the past, with zero interest rates, investing in long-duration assets and growth stocks made sense. However, with the new normal of higher rates, the value of those future cash flows has decreased. This paradigm shift is causing investors to rethink their strategies and consider alternative investment options.
Office real estate faces a significant downturn
The office real estate sector is experiencing a deep downturn and may be facing its worst situation since the Great Depression. The value of office properties has been steadily dropping, with significant declines in recent years. For example, a prominent office building in Jacksonville, Florida, recently sold for less than its outstanding debt. Various factors, including labor strikes, remote work trends, and changing demand for office space, are contributing to this downturn. The implications of this situation extend beyond individual properties and are likely to impact the broader economy and the stock market.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are currently trading at multi-year lows, providing potential opportunities for investors. Some well-run REITs that have no exposure to the struggling office real estate sector are trading at their lowest valuations in more than a decade. For example, Prologis, the largest industrial REIT, is seeing record rents and utilization for its warehouse and logistics facilities, despite being down 30% from its high. Realty Income, a renowned net lease REIT, is also facing attractive valuations with a dividend yield of almost 6%. Overall, the REIT space presents potential investment opportunities, particularly for investors seeking short duration assets with cash flow and dividend-paying potential.
Office real estate appraisals are seeing haircuts worse than the depths of the great financial crisis.
(00:21) Ron Gross and Matt Argersinger discuss: - The Fed walking its talk and maintaining the expectation of another rate hike. - How office real estate is showing signs of trouble, but shouldn’t be weighing down all REITs. - The latest on UAW, WGA, SAG-AFTRA strikes and one metric that shows the gap between company results and worker pay.
(19:11) Justin Hotard, Heads up Hewlett Packard Enterprise's High Performance Computing & Artificial Intelligence segments – breaks down misconceptions around artificial intelligence, and the best ways you can start learning more and understanding the AI future.
(33:22) Ron and Matt break down two stocks on their radar: Fairfax Financial and Nike..
Pullback stocks report – info about the 5 stocks and joining Stock Advisor available at Fool.com/Pullback. Existing Motley Fool premium members can access the report here.
Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Ron Gross, Matt Argersinger, Sanmeet Deo, Justin Hotard Engineers: Dan Boyd