The Milk Road Show

Why 2026 Might Not Be the Bull Market Everyone Expects w/ Julio Moreno

5 snips
Dec 31, 2025
Guest
Julio Moreno
Join on-chain analyst Julio Moreno, known for his insightful demand-side Bitcoin analysis, as he shares a data-driven perspective on the current state of the crypto market. He discusses the potential bear signal despite expectations for a 2026 bull run. Julio highlights the fading demand from treasury companies and examines realized price as a potential market bottom. With a review of bitcoin's competition against macro assets and speculative predictions, he leaves listeners questioning the catalysts for the future.
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ANECDOTE

Treasury Companies Disappointed In 2025

  • Julio learned treasury companies are not uniform investment bets after 2025 price moves.
  • He found many new treasury companies underperformed and hurt retail investors.
INSIGHT

Realized Price As Likely Bottom

  • Bitcoin's realized price (~$56k) is the likely base expectation for a bear-market bottom.
  • Julio Moreno treats realized price as the most reliable historical bottom indicator for Bitcoin.
INSIGHT

One-Year MA Confirms Bear Market

  • Entering a bear market was confirmed when price dropped below its one-year moving average.
  • Julio uses a composite "bull score" and the one-year MA breach as the official bear confirmation.
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