Global News Podcast The Global Story: The US ran a war game on the aftermath of Maduro’s fall – it predicted chaos
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Jan 11, 2026 
Douglas Farah, a former Washington Post journalist and national security consultant, shares insights from his experience in U.S. war games on Venezuelan scenarios. He discusses the chaos predicted if Maduro were ousted and explains the intricate simulations used for policy planning. Farah highlights the threats from criminal networks and foreign influence, while emphasizing the lack of effective governance by potential successors. He warns of the humanitarian challenges post-capture, noting that without robust support, stability in Venezuela could remain elusive.
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War Games Reveal Complex Outcomes
- War games simulate realistic political, military and economic outcomes by role-playing actors and testing scenarios.
- Douglas Farah says they reveal likely second- and third-order effects, not simple victories.
Economic Collapse Drives Mass Migration
- During Obama-era planning, economic collapse and migration were seen as the most likely outcomes, not regime fall.
- Farah notes the migration was larger than expected and reshaped the regional crisis.
Decapitating Regime Risks Fragmentation
- Wargames in 2019 predicted that removing Maduro would likely leave a hollow central government and fragmented armed groups.
- Farah warned that interior regions would be uncontrollable without massive forces.