IMreasoning - Clinical reasoning for Doctors and Students 57: Bayesian Reasoning
Feb 9, 2020
Dive into the world of Bayesian reasoning, where stats and medical decision-making collide! Discover the impact of base rate neglect through engaging case studies. Learn about the crucial roles of sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios in interpreting medical tests. Hear fascinating examples involving fictional conditions like 'fatal itchy arm syndrome.' Explore how pretest probabilities shape clinical judgments and the real-life applications in diagnosing heart failure. Get ready to rethink how you assess health risks!
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The Case of Shy Mike
- Nick Shekett and Art Nahill discuss a case from Julia Galef involving Mike, a shy individual at a liberal arts college.
- The question is whether Mike is more likely a math PhD student or a business school student.
Importance of Priors
- Knowing the relative numbers of students in each field is crucial for determining Mike's likely field of study.
- This is called "priors" in statistics or "pre-test probability" in medical terms.
The Itchy Arm and FIAS
- Art Nahill wakes up with an itchy arm and visits his GP, who is worried about a rare condition called FIAS (Fatal Itchy Arm Syndrome).
- The GP orders a blood test with 99% sensitivity and specificity, which comes back positive.