Jim Schaeffer, global head of leveraged finance at Aegon Asset Management, shares insights on recent market volatility and its impact on M&A and dividend recaps. He discusses the challenges posed by fluctuating interest rates and the Federal Reserve's inflation management. Schaeffer highlights the growing trend of liability management as companies seek liquidity in a high-interest environment, plus the dynamics of the leveraged loan market. He also touches on predictions regarding corporate bankruptcies amidst economic uncertainty.
Read more
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
Recent market volatility has stabilized, influenced by economic data and Federal Reserve rate changes aimed at managing inflation without causing a recession.
The rise in dividend recaps reflects borrowers leveraging strong balance sheets to distribute cash, contingent on maintaining profitability and managing risks amidst economic uncertainty.
Deep dives
Market Stability and Economic Data
Recent market volatility appears to have stabilized, with a strong emphasis placed on economic data as a driving force behind market sentiment. The Federal Reserve's rate changes have aimed to control inflation without triggering a recession, a delicate balancing act that has led to fluctuations in market confidence. The discussion highlights that while fears of a recession have surfaced – particularly following unexpected job data – the overall economic indicators suggest a less severe cooling than previously feared. Market participants are closely monitoring these developments, understanding that shifts in inflation expectations and Fed policies directly impact economic stability.
Recession Predictions and Economic Growth
Recession probabilities have increased slightly, with estimates now at around one-third, but there is a prevailing belief that a recession remains unlikely. While GDP growth is predicted to slow, signs of resilience are present, particularly among consumers who continue to support economic activity. The risk of a downturn is acknowledged, but sentiments lean toward a moderate slowdown rather than a dramatic decline. The accuracy of these predictions depends heavily on forthcoming data, particularly regarding job growth and inflation rates, which will significantly influence future market reactions.
Imbalance in the Loan Market and Dividend Recaps
The loan market is currently experiencing a significant imbalance in supply and demand, driven by increased refinancing activity and a limited new issuance of loans. This situation has led to a rise in dividend recaps, which occur when borrowers leverage their strong balance sheets to distribute cash to equity holders, thus reflecting positive performance. However, this trend is sustainable only as long as companies maintain profitability and can manage risk levels amid a potentially volatile economic landscape. The expectation is that continued demand will fuel dividend recap activities, but this could change if economic conditions worsen.
Liability Management and Market Reactions
Liability management exercises have become increasingly common as companies seek to address cash flow challenges amid rising interest rates. These proactive measures can inadvertently create market paranoia as they lead to speculation about solvency and restructuring risks. The discussions suggest that companies are approaching these exercises strategically to give themselves leeway while navigating liquidity concerns. Observers note that such exercises carry the risk of influencing credit ratings, thus affecting broader market perceptions and lending conditions.
This week on The Reorg Primary View, Reorg's Katherine Schwartz speaks to Jim Schaeffer of Aegon Asset Management, where Jim is the global head of leveraged finance and serves as a portfolio manager for the various leveraged finance strategies. They discuss the recent volatility in markets, how anticipated rate changes might affect the market and M&A, the recent trend of dividend recaps, liability management exercises and their effect on the secondary loan market and much more.
And, as always, we bring you our weekly summary of interesting developments in the restructuring world as well as a preview of what’s on tap for this week.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode