Inside Russia’s plot to put Trump back in the White House – with Gavin Esler and Joseph Webster
Jan 17, 2024
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Gavin Esler and Joseph Webster discuss Russia's plot to put Trump back in the White House, including manipulating gasoline prices and perpetuating disinformation campaigns. They also explore the potential benefits for Russia under a Trump presidency and compare voter awareness between Taiwan and the United States.
Gasoline prices can be manipulated by Russia to have a significant impact on US elections.
Russian disinformation campaigns are expected to persist in the 2024 US presidential election.
Deep dives
Russian Interference in Elections
The podcast discusses the degree of Russian interest and involvement in elections, particularly the upcoming 2024 US presidential election. It highlights that the Kremlin is highly interested in the election due to its importance for Russian interests, such as impacting the energy transition and diminishing the West's living standards. The podcast suggests that Russia may attempt to shape the election by influencing gasoline prices, raising them to reduce Biden's performance legitimacy and boost their preferred candidate, Donald Trump. Previous actions, like manipulating oil production, have been used to influence US elections, and the podcast speculates that the Kremlin will continue to pursue disinformation campaigns to sway the election.
Motivations for Russian Support of Trump
The podcast examines the reasons why Russia may prefer a Trump presidency over a Biden presidency. It argues that a Trump presidency would likely lead to chaos and internal division in the United States, reducing the attention Washington can place on Moscow. Additionally, Russia may benefit from a breakdown or weakening of the NATO alliance, as well as a reduction in US support for Ukraine. The podcast suggests that a Trump presidency could also bring economic benefits to Russia, both directly through relaxation of sanctions and indirectly through slowing the energy transition and suppressing competing crude oil exports from Venezuela and Iran.
Voter Awareness and Disinformation
The podcast explores differences in voter awareness and susceptibility to disinformation between countries like Taiwan and the United States. It notes that Taiwanese voters are more sensitive to external threats, particularly from China, while American voters tend to be more insular and inward-focused. The podcast highlights high polarization and media siloing in the United States, leading to the acceptance of disinformation and the dismissal of true information. It concludes that voter awareness and the presence of disinformation are crucial elements in shaping election outcomes.
The 2024 US Presidential election will likely see Biden and Trump back on the ballot. And, if previous elections are anything to go by, Russia will play a key role in manipulating things in Trump’s favour. Joseph Webster, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and editor of the China-Russia report, joins Gavin Esler in The Bunker, to discuss what Russia seeks to gain out of a Trump presidency, and how they might just get it.
• “Gasoline prices are a major determinant in U.S. elections. Anything that Russia can do to lower or increase prices will have a big impact.” – Joseph Webster
• “Disinformation campaign efforts by the Russian state and by figures associated with the Russian state will almost certainly persist into 2024.” – Joseph Webster
Written and Presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by: Eliza Davis Beard. Audio production: Alex Rees. Managing Editor: Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Music by Kenny Dickinson. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production.