Dana Telsey recaps a busy holiday shopping season and notes moderation in consumer spending. Dan Ives predicts Apple's market cap to hit $4 trillion. Matt Miskin expects the Fed's influence over markets to decrease. Tom Tzitzouris discusses rate cuts for central banks. Norman Roule highlights escalating tensions in the Middle East.
There has been a moderation in consumer spending across all income levels during the holiday shopping season.
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, including attacks by proxies of Iran and the killing of a senior Iranian Quds Force official, raises the risk of a broader conflict in the region.
Deep dives
Escalation of Violence in the Middle East
The Middle East has seen a multi-front escalation of violence in recent days. Israel has intensified its attacks, targeting Hamas leadership and tunnels in Gaza. There have also been attacks by proxies of Iran, such as Hezbollah, and the US has responded with airstrikes in Iraq. The killing of a senior Iranian Quds Force official has raised the possibility of Iranian retaliation. Additionally, there is ongoing concern regarding attacks by Houthis in the Red Sea, potentially impacting shipping. The situation highlights the erosion of the international community's deterrence and the rising risk of a broader conflict in the region.
Weakest Link in the Coalition
The Red Sea is a critical area to watch as potential Iranian retaliation through proxies, such as the Houthis, pose a risk to shipping and regional stability. The coalition forces providing protection to shipping in the Red Sea face the challenge of maintaining deterrence and response capability, particularly with the US signaling a desire to avoid further escalation. While tensions exist in Lebanon, Hezbollah appears constrained by the risk of strategic damage, reducing the immediate threat of escalation. However, the normalization of violence and the increasing testing of red lines by Iran's proxies are concerning developments.
US Response and Challenges
The US has responded to escalating tensions in the Middle East, including airstrikes in Iraq. However, the capacity for retaliation does not necessarily ensure deterrence. The role of continued pressure from Iran and its proxies, as well as the prospect of further Iranian retaliation, remains a challenge. The international community's approach against the expansion of the conflict has deterrence implications and raises questions about the credibility of collective security. The risk of normalization of violence and the potential erosion of the international community's deterrence capacity should be closely monitored.
Israeli and Coalition Priorities
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has outlined prerequisites for peace, including the destruction of Hamas, the demilitarization of Gaza, and the de-radicalization of Palestinian society. These goals present significant challenges and long-term efforts. Pressure is building for a potential truce, particularly given international calls to end the conflict. However, the complexity of the situation and the challenge of implementing the prerequisites suggest a resolution may be difficult to achieve in the near term.
Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, recaps a busy holiday shopping season and says there's been a moderation in consumer spending across all income levels.
Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, predicts Apple will hit a whopping $4 trillion market capitalization next year.
Matt Miskin, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, predicts the Fed will have less influence over markets in 2024.
Tom Tzitzouris, Strategas Head of Fixed Income Research, says rate cuts are easier to justify for central banks outside the US than for the Fed.
Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, overviews escalating tensions in the Middle East as the Israel-Hamas war threatens to spill over.