N N Taleb's Probability Questions (UNOFFICIAL)

Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson Discuss "Chaos Kings", Part 4 (2024)

Nov 11, 2025
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author and former trader known for The Black Swan, joins to tackle geoengineering risks and nonlinear climate tipping points. He explores structural barriers to decarbonization and urban solutions. Political incentives, term limits, polarization as governance checks, and critiques of longtermism and finance fragility also drive the conversation.
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INSIGHT

Geoengineering Presumes False Certainty

  • Geoengineering assumes we understand climate causation and side effects, which we do not.
  • Nassim warns interventions can cascade into unforeseen environmental disasters like Mao's four-pest campaign.
ANECDOTE

Mao's Sparrow Campaign Backfired

  • Mao's campaign to kill sparrows intended to boost yields instead caused insect blights and crop loss.
  • Nassim uses this historical example to illustrate unanticipated ecological side effects of large interventions.
ADVICE

Stop Pollution Instead Of Global Fixes

  • Avoid global remedial actions unless you understand the nature and tails of the risk.
  • Nassim recommends stopping pollutant dumping rather than attempting large-scale atmospheric fixes.
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