Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy from StoneX Group Inc., joins Kevin to discuss inflation and the challenges faced by the economy. They explore topics like distorted healthcare costs, the second wave of inflation, factors contributing to economic stimulus, projected increase in healthcare needs, and the potential of AI in healthcare. They also have a fun chat about the TV show Emily in Paris and its characters.
The guest suggests looking at wages, which have been steadily rising, to understand true underlying inflation.
The guest points out potential inflationary headwinds that could prevent CPI from returning to 2% on a sustained basis.
Deep dives
Inflation is more than just a spike
The guest discusses how there is a difference between inflation as a broad economic phenomenon and the CPI as a measurement. While the CPI has dropped to around 3% from a peak of 9% last summer, the guest argues that both the peak and the drop are somewhat illusory due to factors like volatile commodity prices and base effects. To understand true underlying inflation, the guest suggests looking at wages, which have been steadily rising around 4% to 5% per year. The guest believes that this is where inflation will eventually settle in the coming years.
Expectations vs. reality of CPI inflation
The guest questions the validity of inflation expectations, pointing out that swaps and break-evens have shown a linear pattern and fail to reflect the normal cyclical nature of inflation. They emphasize that expectations should not weigh heavily as they have not changed much in the past few years, despite the CPI already rising on a year-over-year basis. The guest also highlights potential inflationary headwinds, including higher energy prices, tougher base effects, and the underreported inflation in healthcare costs. They argue that these factors could prevent CPI from returning to 2% on a sustained basis.
The second wave of inflation and historical patterns
The guest discusses historical patterns of inflation, noting that inflation often comes in waves or echo peaks after the initial spike. They mention economic data from the UK that spans over a thousand years, showing a recurring pattern of inflation peaks and subsequent echo peaks. The guest finds it interesting that current inflation trend predictions do not exhibit the normal wave pattern. They suggest that this may be an opportunity for international investing, as higher rates could transfer large sums of money from the US to the rest of the world.
Shift in outlook: From bullish to bearish on stocks
The guest explains the shift in their outlook from previously being bullish on the stock market to becoming bearish. They highlight concerns about the valuation of stocks compared to other investment options such as cash and treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). Additionally, the guest expresses a more cautious stance towards the economy, raising the possibility of a recession in 2024 due to the reversal of the fiscal stimulus factors that supported growth in 2023. They caution against underestimating the potential impact of a recession and emphasize the importance of managing expectations in finance.
In this episode of MH+, Kevin is joined by guest favourite Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy from StoneX Group Inc. Kevin and Vincent take a dive into inflation and the upcoming challenges the economy may face.