The Market Huddle
MH+ Ep.10: Kevin chats with Vincent Deluard
Aug 19, 2023
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy from StoneX Group Inc., joins Kevin to discuss inflation and the challenges faced by the economy. They explore topics like distorted healthcare costs, the second wave of inflation, factors contributing to economic stimulus, projected increase in healthcare needs, and the potential of AI in healthcare. They also have a fun chat about the TV show Emily in Paris and its characters.
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Quick takeaways
- The guest suggests looking at wages, which have been steadily rising, to understand true underlying inflation.
- The guest points out potential inflationary headwinds that could prevent CPI from returning to 2% on a sustained basis.
Deep dives
Inflation is more than just a spike
The guest discusses how there is a difference between inflation as a broad economic phenomenon and the CPI as a measurement. While the CPI has dropped to around 3% from a peak of 9% last summer, the guest argues that both the peak and the drop are somewhat illusory due to factors like volatile commodity prices and base effects. To understand true underlying inflation, the guest suggests looking at wages, which have been steadily rising around 4% to 5% per year. The guest believes that this is where inflation will eventually settle in the coming years.
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